Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo? How To Bet the 49ers’ Starting QBs For Week 1

Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo? How To Bet the 49ers’ Starting QBs For Week 1 article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo

49ers Starting QB Odds: Week 1

QB Odds Implied Probability
Jimmy Garoppolo -320 76.2%
Trey Lance +240 29.4%
Nick Mullens +1600 5.9%
Odds as of June 22 and via FanDuel

I have a theory that the 49ers will do to Jimmy Garoppolo what the Eagles did to Sam Bradford in 2016: Trade up to draft a rookie quarterback (Trey Lance is Carson Wentz in this instance), downplay rumors about trading your veteran, play said veteran through the preseason, then trade him before Week 1.

And it makes sense — playing it cool through training camp and showcasing Jimmy G in the preseason theoretically raises his potential trade value.

Lance also makes more sense for Kyle Shanahan, who as Washington’s offensive coordinator under his dad and then-head coach Mike Shanahan, coached Robert Griffin III to a Rookie of the Year campaign in 2012. Plus, the Niners can’t rely on someone who can’t stay on the field — Jimmy G has played only one complete season over the three full ones he’s been in San Francisco, missing 13 games in 2018 then 10 in 2020 due to injuries.

At the end of the day, the 49ers should recognize the small window they have to return to the Super Bowl, and that they need to capitalize on it by moving on from Garoppolo. And with a $26.4 million salary in 2021 that amounts to 13.5% of the 49ers’ cap (per Spotrac), the 49ers can’t eat that much money on him and not get any return on it.

All of that is why Lance to start Week 1 for the 49ers at +240 odds — which give him only a 29.4% implied probability when the chances are likely higher (convert more odds using our Betting Odds Calculator) — is one of only two Week 1 starter bets I’ve made so far.

Pick: Trey Lance +240 at FanDuel

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