Tyler Shough Scouting Report & 2022 NFL Draft Profile

Tyler Shough Scouting Report & 2022 NFL Draft Profile article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Ferrey/Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Shough.

Tyler Shough NFL Draft Profile

Position
QB
School
Texas Tech
Height
6’5″
Weight
220
40-Yard Dash
4.88
2021 Age
22
Class
RS-Junior
Recruit. Stars
4
Projected Round
2-3

Tyler Shough NFL Draft Projections

Tyler Shough has much to prove at Texas Tech. A consensus four-star pro-style pocket passer, Shough redshirted at Oregon in 2018 and then backed up Justin Herbert in 2019 before starting for the Ducks in 2020.

Although Oregon won the Pac-12, the Ducks disappointed with a 4-3 campaign and played in the conference championship only because of Covid-related issues for Washington, and at the end of the season Shough was notably outproduced by backup Anthony Brown, who played ahead of him in the second half of the team’s 34-17 Fiesta Bowl loss to Iowa State.

With his status at Oregon in doubt, Shough left the school in February and enrolled at Texas Tech, where he is expected to win the starting job and play right away as a graduate transfer. He has three seasons of eligibility left because of his redshirt campaign and NCAA-granted sixth-year COVID-linked exemption, but if Shough plays well in 2021 he will be a candidate to leave college early and declare for the NFL draft in 2022.

Tyler Shough Scouting Report

Strengths

  • Prototypical size (6-foot-5, 220 pounds).
  • NFL-caliber arm strength.
  • Strong 9.6 adjusted yards attempt for his career.
  • Sufficient running ability as a pocket passer (4.1 yards per carry, includes sacks).

Weaknesses

  • Only seven games of starting experience.
  • Beaten out at end of 2020 season by a transfer backup.
  • Underperformed in biggest games.
  • Long-ish release.

Tyler Shough Stats

Passing Production

  • 2020 (7 games): 167-1,559-13-6 passing | 63.5% completion rate
  • 2019 (4 games): 15-144-3-0 passing | 80.0% completion rate

Rushing Production

  • 2020 (7 games): 66-271-1 rushing | 4.1 yards per carry
  • 2019 (4 games): 2-11-0 rushing | 5.5 yards per carry

*Includes Sacks

Tyler Shough & Texas Tech Betting Odds

Below are the best odds for various Tyler Shough and Texas Tech betting markets as of May 25, 2021. Find reviews of the best online sportsbooks here.

  • Tyler Shough to Be No. 1 Pick in 2022 Draft: +5000 at PointsBet
  • Tyler Shough to Win Heisman Trophy: +10000 at William Hill
  • Texas Tech to Win National Championship: +75000 at DraftKings
  • Texas Tech to Win Big 12 Conference: +8000 at FanDuel
  • Texas Tech to Be Big 12 Finalist: +1600 at DraftKings

Tyler Shough & Texas Tech Market Analysis

Early in May, I opened a small, speculative position on Shough to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

My first prop bets for the 2022 NFL draft: At BetMGM.

No. 1 pick: All QBs
– S. Rattler: +300, 0.5u
– S. Howell: +400, 0.3u
– T. Shough (misspelled "Slough," LOLz): +6600, 0.2u

Rattler & Howell are chalky options. Shough is an informed longshot.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) May 9, 2021

But I wouldn’t bet him at the current number, and I also wouldn’t bet him at +10000 to win the Heisman — because if he plays well enough to win the award then Texas Tech is probably good enough compete for the Big 12 and maybe even the national title. That means if you’re bullish on Slough, it might be best to invest in him by betting on Texas Tech.

I am, however, skeptical on Texas Tech. Head coach Matt Wells was just 44-34 in six years at Utah State, where only one of his teams (2018) finished the year with a top-25 ranking in the Associated Press poll. With the Red Raiders, Wells is an underwhelming 8-14 with two straight losing seasons.

As is almost always the case at Texas Tech, the offense is fine but the defense is a problem: Last year, the Red Raiders were No. 109 (out of 128) in the FBS with 36.7 points allowed per game.

Texas Tech offers significant line-shopping value at +75000 to win the national championship at DraftKings and +8000 to win the Big 12 at FanDuel. Those lines are respectively +20000 and +5000 at many sportsbooks. But the team’s defense is likely to be so bad that I still don’t see significant value at these best-in-market prices.

I’m passing.

Matthew Freedman is 1,051-849-37 (+92.6 units) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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