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Vikings vs Dolphins Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Vikings vs Dolphins Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6 article feature image
Credit:

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Skylar Thompson.

  • Skylar Thompson gets his first career NFL start today against the Vikings.
  • Miami will be without Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater.
  • Kody Malstrom breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Vikings Odds -3
Dolphins Odds +3
Moneyline -168 / +140
Over/Under 45.5
Odds via FanDuel.

Remember when the Miami Dolphins were being pegged as a Super Bowl contender after narrowly beating the Bills? Doesn’t that feel like forever ago?

Getting hit hard by the injury bug, the Dolphins trains came flying off the track after witnessing Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater both go down with injuries and losing to the Jets last week, 40-17.

As for the Vikings, it may not be pretty, but this team is 4-1 and finding its identity again on offense.

With Kirk Cousins being a wild card under center and coupling that with a new face starting under center for the Dolphins, this has all the intrigue for our betting pleasure.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Vikings and Dolphins match up statistically:

Vikings vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 11 29
Pass DVOA 14 32
Rush DVOA 10 7
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 6 28
Pass DVOA 5 26
Rush DVOA 15 23

Minnesota Vikings

After cruising to a comfortable victory over the Green Bay Packers, which doesn’t look as remarkable now, the Vikings offense has looked flat since then. Still, a win’s a win, and that’s exactly what the Vikings have been doing.

After surviving a sleepy spot last week against the Bears, a week after their trip to London, the offense has found some life again in their new downfield air-raid scheme.

Cousins has been about as average as expected out of a starter, around 0.1 in both CPOE (Completion % above expected) and EPA per play.

The key to the Vikings offense turning it back around is the Cousins-to-Justin-Jefferson connection. While they have plenty of playmakers on offense, getting Jefferson in a groove helps command the opposing defenses’ attention.

He finished last week with 154 yards on 12 receptions and zero touchdowns. Jefferson and company are poised for another big outing as the Dolphins’ defensive Pass DVOA ranks as one of the worst in the NFL.


Bet at FanDuel
Vikings -3 | Dolphins -3


Miami Dolphins

Even though it was announced that both Tagovailoa and Bridgewater have passed concussion protocols, Skylar Thompson will still be getting the starting nod in this week’s matchup. Tagovailoa makes his return next week against the Steelers, while Bridgewater will be the backup this Sunday.

Enter Thompson. Coming in for the majority of last week’s matchup against the Jets, he finished with a lackluster performance against one of the worst defensive Pass DVOAs in football. In a 23-point loss, Thompson threw for 166 yards, one interception and zero touchdowns. Yikes.

A downgrade from the offense we were seeing from Tagovailoa, Thompson will need to find a way to reconnect with the speed on the outside. The team’s offensive success was solely around completing at the highest rate on explosive pass plays, a factor that disappeared last week.

The opportunity is there again since the Vikings give up explosive plays at the second-highest rate in the league, but I would be hard-pressed to see Thompson pull it off in his first start.

As for the defense, it may be in for a long day. Even when the Dolphins were undefeated, this was a unit that was constantly getting bullied in the boxscore. Luck only runs you so far until regression joins the party, and this unit is one of the worst defensive passing units in football.

Betting Picks

With the news of Thompson starting, most of the value on the number has been sapped as this climbed to as high as 3.5. Instead, I will be shifting my focus to the total.

The Dolphins offense has completely crumbled since losing Tagovailoa, abandoning its offensive identity that brought it success in the first place. Until Thompson proves he can get the offense humming again, this is a unit that I imagine will be getting pushed off the field early.

While the Vikings defense is nothing special, it is still a Mike Zimmer-built unit that can generate pressure in the backfield and force Thompson into limited checkdowns and mistakes.

Their offense has also gone back to its roots and is poised for another successful outing through the air against one of the bottom-feeding defensive pass units.

Take the under at no lower than 45 with a live opportunity on the Vikings at -2.5 or better should the Miami luck box activate early.

Quickslip: Under 45.5 | Bet to 45

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