Vikings vs. Packers Betting Odds & Picks: Green Bay Undervalued at Lambeau?

Vikings vs. Packers Betting Odds & Picks: Green Bay Undervalued at Lambeau? article feature image

Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins

Vikings at Packers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Packers -2.5
  • Total: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Packers offense left something to be desired in their season-opening slugfest in Chicago. But are Aaron Rodgers and Co. being undervalued in another NFC North matchup at Lambeau?

Our experts break down the most important angles of the Packers’ showdown with the Vikings, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Vikings-Packers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Vikings

Both teams are decently healthy for this divisional matchup.

The Vikings aren’t facing any key injuries on the injury front, but the Packers could be without G David Bakhtiari (back), who missed practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -3.5
  • Projected Total: 45

Books are getting hammered on this under, and why wouldn’t they?

The Packers opened the season with a 10-3 snooze fest on Thursday Night Football, and the Vikings attempted only 10 passes in Week 1, relying solely on the run game and their defense to beat the Falcons, 28-12. That recency bias is leading the public to gang up on the under.

It’s worth seeing if the pressure can cause the line to dip past the key numbers of 43-44 and come in on the over with that extra value. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Packers’ Defense vs. Vikings’ Offensive Line

I still don’t think the market is properly valuing the Packers’ dramatic improvement on defense.

Not only did their young corners gain valuable experience last season, the Packers upgraded at safety by signing one of the best (Adrian Amos) and drafting Darnell Savage, who fits perfectly at Mike Pettine’s robber position. They also improved their pass rush with Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, who combined for 16 pressures and 2.5 sacks in their team debut.

They looked extremely meek on the other side of the ball, but what did we really expect from a new offense on the road against one of the best defenses? It should look much crisper this week, especially with the extra time to prepare off the Thursday night game.

The Vikings will likely rely heavily on the run again, which will keep the clock moving, and I expect the Packers to be on the slower side early in the season as they learn their new offense.

Unlike the Falcons, the Packers actually have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. They are actually capable of matching up with the Vikings’ excellent defensive front and reading their exotic blitzes — a luxury Matt Ryan did not enjoy last week.

That should give Rodgers enough time to exploit a banged up Minnesota secondary. I expect Davante Adams to have a big game against the declining Xavier Rhodes. In two meetings last year, Adams tallied a total of 13 catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns.

Davante Adams-Xavier Rhodes
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Davante Adams, Xavier Rhodes

And can we please stop saying it’s been almost 1,000 days since the Packers beat the Vikings? Not only is that meaningless (the Packers now have a defense), but Rodgers didn’t play in one of those games, he got hurt in the first quarter of another, and a ridiculous roughing call on Clay Matthews cost them the win in another.

Now that the Packers have a defense on par with the Vikings, Green Bay should win this game at home with its advantage in the trenches. The Vikings still have one of the worst in the NFC, especially up the middle. The Packers’ defensive line should have success blowing up the A and B gaps, while the Smiths should continue to generate pressure off the edge.

Coming into the season, I had the Packers rated as the best team in the NFC North, although not by an enormous margin. That didn’t change after Week 1, which means I make them greater than a 3-point favorite at Lambeau. Therefore, I see value in Green Bay at a field goal or less.

I also like the under in this divisional matchup featuring two of the NFC’s better defenses.Stuckey

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 108-112-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,602 following this strategy since 2003.

The Vikings are a match for this system as field goal underdogs in Lambeau. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Collin Wilson: Under 45

One of the more eye-popping stats from Week 1 was plays per game for the Vikings and Packers. While Minnesota turned in 49 plays against a 2018 average of 62.7, Green Bay had just 57 snaps versus an average of 64.1 last season. The under for this game is supported by a poor yards per play from Green Bay, going 3.9 yards on both sides of the ball. Minnesota is just +0.4, indicating that this game in Lambeau will be decided by each teams defense.

Historically, the total has gone under seven of the last nine matchups between these two teams in Lambeau.

The Vikings have gone over the total just once in their past seven games. They have a renewed interest in the run game, leading the preseason in rushing yards per game. That played out against Atlanta as the Vikings elected to pass 10 times versus 48 rushing attempts.

With the focus on the rebuilt Green Bay defense, expect plenty of punts as Minnesota got the worst pass blocking grade in Week 1 per Pro Football Focus.

I grabbed the under at 45, but still see value at 44.

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