The Washington Commanders (3-7) and Miami Dolphins (3-7) face off in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for in 9:30 a.m. ET from Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain. The game will broadcast on NFL Network.
The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders (Dolphins -2.5; -115). The over/under is 47.5 points. The Dolphins are -150 moneyline favorites while the Commanders are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my NFL Madrid Game preview and Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction.
Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction
- Commanders vs Dolphins pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-115)
My Commanders vs Dolphins best bet is the Dolphins to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Dolphins Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Commanders vs Dolphins Week 11 Preview
It's our last NFL international game of the year and our first ever in Madrid!
It looks like a bit of a stinker with Jayden Daniels out and both teams disappointing — but that doesn't mean we can't find an angle!
Season-long metrics say these teams are mostly even. Just look at the DVOA.
Washington's offense is slightly ahead, 19th to 25th, though obviously those numbers include all the Daniels games. The teams are 23rd and 24th on defense, 3rd and 4th on special teams. It looks like a dead heat.
Dig a little deeper, though, and you find a very different story.
We've had 10 weeks of NFL action. Over the first half of them, Washington ranked 8th on offense and 13th on defense by DVOA, a clear playoff-caliber, fringe-top-10 team. Since Week 6, the Commanders have plummeted to 26th and 31st, (dis)respectively — about as bad as any team in the league, especially on defense.
Over the same timeframe, the Dolphins rose from dead last in Defensive DVOA after the first five weeks to 7th since. Miami has been helped by some opponent injuries and off games, but the trend is clear: Miami's defense has improved from awful to at least average at the exact same time as Washington's plummeted from average to awful.
The Commanders just don't have much defensive talent, and what little they had has taken a ton of injuries, with DT Daron Payne suspended today on top of everything.
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has taken over playcalling on defense, but coaches can't make magic out of nothing.
This is just a bad defense, and its one real strength is at linebacker with veterans Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but Miami attacks horizontally and outside, stretching the field, and those two will likely be too slow to keep up with De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and all the speed the Dolphins possess.
Teams that allow over 24 points in at least five straight games are just 37% against the spread (ATS) since 2018. Once we learn a defense is that bad, it's often profitable to just keep betting against them.
As for Washington's offense, the passing game is in tatters right now without Daniels and Terry McLaurin, unable to attack this beatable Miami secondary, and a once potent rushing attack has cratered.
Ever heard of the Kliff cliff?
Year after year, Kliff Kingsbury's teams tend to have some answers early in the season but get outed later in the year. Kingsbury's rushing attack looked good early despite a lack of talent, but it's disappeared entirely of late.
Neither of these teams are enjoying their season, but they're still headed in opposite directions. Sunday made that clear, and the line adjusted accordingly from Washington being a slight favorite to Miami near a field-goal favorite.
Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's almost always a good idea to back favorites in international games — makes sense, right?
Just take the better team on a neutral field. Excluding Jaguars games (because they play overseas so often), favorites in international games are 28-13 ATS, covering 68% of the time.
Miami doesn't have to be good — it just has to be better than whatever's left of Washington. Grab the Dolphins at -2.5 while it's available below the key number.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-115)
Spread
My pick for this game is the Dolphins to cover the spread. As I noted above, favorites in international games are 28-13 ATS — and, of course, the Commanders are in free fall.
Moneyline
I have no play for the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
Commanders vs Dolphins Betting Trends
Commanders vs Dolphins Weather
