Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott
- Bookmakers in Vegas have seen sharp money come in on the Arizona Cardinals as big underdogs against the Chiefs.
- Usually the Cowboys are a public team but nobody is betting Dallas against the Eagles on Sunday night.
After such a deep and exciting Week 9 in the NFL there’s only a handful of games this week grabbing the public’s attention and, for once, it appears to be a fairly predictable bunch of games.
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
One would expect that the betting masses would be laying the points with the Chiefs against a woeful Cardinals team. The concern for chalk-eaters is that this is a prime let-down spot for Kansas City and that is showing a little bit behind the window.
Tony Miller, executive director of the Golden Nugget Sportsbook, is seeing underdog action and said the Cardinals are one of his favorite plays this weekend.
“Who knows if Andy Reid plans on playing Mahomes or any of the key players the whole game here. It could set up for a late cover by the underdog,” Miller said. “That is a lot of points especially if you tease it up to 22 or 23. This is definitely a ‘pros’ type of play but I could see the Cardinals covering here. The Chiefs could be looking ahead to the big game next week vs the Rams in Mexico City.”
John Murray, director of the Westgate Superbook, thinks the line is too high, as well. “This is an absolutely ridiculous line in today’s NFL. I think the sharps won’t be able to help themselves with such a huge spread. It could push the line down to maybe 16 or even 15.5. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see some downward movement as we get closer to kickoff.”
New Orleans Saints (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals | Over/Under: 54
The Saints are coming off a massive win over the Rams last weekend so you may think this is a classic let-down spot, but New Orleans has played better each passing week.
There will be a lot of betting attention on the Saints this week but the Bengals had a bye week with plenty of time to prepare for this game and their home record, especially against the spread, has been decent.
“This is definitely a pros vs joes type of game,” Murray said. “The public is going to be all over New Orleans after that big win last Sunday. I’m seeing some of the wise guys taking the Bengals here even though Cincinnati has some key injuries including AJ Green. The line opened here at -4.5 and quickly went to -5.5 but with the action I’m expecting from the sharps, I think this line could come back down a little, especially with what I’m seeing around town.”
Recreational bettors aren’t afraid of a letdown and are all over New Orleans at the Golden Nugget.
“We opened this line at Saints -4.5 and we’re already up to -5.5 and all the money has been on the Saints here,” Miller said. “You know how the public gets. When you win and cover a few weeks in a row they’re going to stay on board for the ride. I can easily see this game going to -6. My feeling is if the sharps are going to come in on this game it will be very late like early Sunday morning where they could even get +6.5.”
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-7) | Over/Under: 43.5
Chicago had an easy time last week at Buffalo but does that really mean anything? The Bears were expected to have their way with the Bills and they did.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s loss last week to Minnesota showed that the Lions are probably a step behind the playoff contenders in the NFC North, though a win here would go a long way to getting the Lions back in the race.
“I think the -6.5 point spread is probably too high and I expect we could get some Detroit money as the week progresses,” Murray commented. “However, with the usual Bears fan support it should counteract any sharp money unless it’s a huge bet on Detroit to move this line down very much, if at all.”
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) | Over/Under: 43.5
Dallas had an absolutely terrible loss last Monday night against the Titans, who lit up the Cowboys defense fairly easily. With the Eagles coming off a bye and the Cowboys in shambles, you don’t have to think very hard to figure out where the action is going in this one.
“We opened at -6.5 and the line has already gone to they key number of -7,” Miller said. “I thought it would take a little longer to get there but this was pretty quick. I can see this being the game where the Eagles launch themselves to the next level and run the table on the division.”
The Westgate also moved this one to -7 quickly and Murray thinks it has a chance to move another two points before Sunday Night Football kicks off. “Our line opened at -6 and quickly went to -7. I think we’ll be up to -8 or even -9 by game time Sunday night,” he said.