Best Week 14 NFL Prop Bet: Picks for Aaron Rodgers, Willie Snead, More
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
- Mike Randle identifies the best NFL prop bets for Week 14 of the NFL season.
- Find his picks on the over/unders for Aaron Rodgers, Willie Snead and more player props.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
- Ravens at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- Redskins at Packers: 1 pm ET
- Titans at Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET
- 49ers at Saints: 1:00 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening. Check out DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Week 14 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are three props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate, with one 9-rated and one 8-rated selection. This season, props with a grade of 8 or higher are 856-636-20 (57% win rate).
Ravens WR Willie Snead
- The Opponent: Bills (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
The Bills have a tremendous secondary, but quarterback’s Lamar Jackson escapability makes this receiving prop likely to hit for Baltimore’s Willie Snead.
Buffalo will most likely focus on deep threat Marquise Brown, possibly filtering targets in the short to intermediate area of the field to Snead. However, Brown was on the injury report all week with an ankle injury, potentially opening up more targets.
Snead has totaled between 10-15 yards in each of the past five games but has seen three red-zone targets and two touchdowns in that span.
We project Snead at 20.6 receiving yards which are 4.4 yards above his implied total.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -140.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
- The Opponent: Redskins (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-157)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
The Packers return home after consecutive road games against the 49ers and Giants. They will face a Washington pass defense that has allowed the 10th most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
This is great news for Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.
In their six home games, Rodgers has averaged 301.8 passing yards, 26.6 fantasy points, and two passing touchdowns per game. It is difficult to see him not matching that average against a poor defensive Washington team.
The Redskins’ defense ranks 20th in passing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Rodgers should have plenty of weapons with wideouts Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, and a pair of talented pass-catching running backs. Washington has allowed the seventh-most receptions to opposing backfields this season.
We project Rodgers at exactly two touchdown passes which are 20% above his implied total of 1.7 passing scores.
I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -170.
Titans WR A.J. Brown
- The Opponent: Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 3.5 Receptions (+150)
- Bet Quality: 8/10
I love the positive juice on this receptions prop for mercurial Tennessee wideout A.J. Brown at Oakland.
With the absence of Adam Humphries (ankle), look for Brown to enjoy an uptick in targets from his 4.5 per game average. The Oakland secondary rates as fourth-most generous to opposing quarterbacks and Brown rates seventh among all wide receivers in yards per reception (18.4) and fourth in yards per pass route (3.1).
We project Brown at 3.7 receptions which are 16% over his implied total. This prop has the third-best juice on the Fantasy Labs Player Props Tool.
I would bet this 8-rated prop up to +125.
Redskins TE Jeremy Sprinkle
- The Opponent: Packers (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Washington’s athletic tight end has seen over 80% of the snaps in six of the past seven games. Sprinkle faces a Green Bay defense that is third-most generous to opposing tight ends, allowing 9.7 fantasy points per game to the position.
Green Bay allows opposing tight ends to gain a ton of yardage. They rank second-most generous with 826 receiving yards allowed to the position. Last week, Giants’ rookie tight end Kaden Smith even totaled six receptions for 70 yards.
We project Sprinkle at 21 receiving yards which are 22% above his implied total. The -114 juice also makes this a very enticing 10-rated prop play.
I would bet this prop down to -140.
Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith
- The Opponent: 49ers (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 16.5 receiving yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
I am going back to Tre’Quan Smith based on his big-play ability in a huge home game for New Orleans.
Smith has struggled to become part of the offense after missing significant time with an ankle sprain in Week 2.
However, his snap share has risen each of the past three weeks and an upper percentile Speed Score and Burst Score make him a big-play threat on every possession (PlayerProfiler).
With San Francisco putting their defensive focus on All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara, Smith should have a few opportunities to get loose for a huge play. The 16.5 receiving yardage total is simply too low.
We project Smith for 20.3 receiving yards which is 19% more than his implied total. I would be this 9-rated prop down to -130.