Week 16 Sunday Prop Bets: Dwayne Haskins, John Ross and More

Week 16 Sunday Prop Bets: Dwayne Haskins, John Ross and More article feature image

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dwayne Haskins.

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.

The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

  • Giants at Redskins: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Bengals at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Ravens at Browns: 1 pm. ET
  • Lions at Broncos: 4:05 pm ET

Week 16 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks

Here are four props with a Bet Quality of 10 and one with a bet quality of 9 for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 438-321-15 (56.5% win rate).

Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins

  • The Opponent: Giants (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-250)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Washington’s rookie quarterback has thrown three touchdowns in the past two games, finishing last week as the overall fantasy QB10.

Haskins will be highly motivated against a Giants team that chose to bypass him in the NFL Draft for fellow rookie signal-caller Daniel Jones. Fortunately, he will be facing a New York defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin provides Haskins with a solid scoring option, ranking first among all wideouts with seven touchdowns. New York is even more generous to opposing receivers, allowing the fourth-most fantasy production.

We project Haskins at 1.4 passing touchdowns which is a full 120% above his implied total.  The juice is certainly low but the huge differential in our projection makes this a worthwhile play.

I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -280.

Broncos RB Royce Freeman

  • The Opponent: Lions (4:05 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

This receiving yardage prop provides strong juice for Denver’s Royce Freeman, who is facing a Detroit team that has allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. The Lions have allowed 73 receptions, 796 receiving yards, and a league-high eight touchdowns to opposing backfields.

Freeman has become Denver’s passing game running back with 12 targets over the past four games. He has reached this prop total three times in his past five games, all against much tougher competition. He ranks 16th at the position with 40 receptions and sixth-best among all running backs with an 85% catch rate (PlayerProfiler).

We project Freeman at 16.1 receiving yards which is 26% over his implied total.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -120.

Bengals WR John Ross

  • The Opponent: Dolphins (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (+120)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

It is impossible to pass up a wide receiver receptions total with positive juice against the Dolphins secondary. This has the best odds of any 10-rated prop on our Sunday slate.

The Dolphins allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, which includes a league-leading 24 receiving touchdowns. Prior to being placed on the injured reserve with a shoulder injury, Ross was enjoying a breakout season. He had produced the overall WR3 and WR10 performances with 5.5 receptions in each of Cincinnati’s first two games.

Ross has received three targets in each of the games he has played since returning, but that is well below his 26 total targets over his first three games. With fellow wideout Auden Tate now on injured reserve, Ross should see his most volume since returning from the injury and is in an ideal matchup.

We project Ross at 2.9 receptions which are 24% over his implied total. The over/under total of 46.5 points indicates a high likelihood that Ross will see plenty of targets.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -110.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Laird.

Dolphins RB Patrick Laird

  • The Opponent: Bengals (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 47.5 rushing yards (-112)
  • Bet Quality: 9/10

The clock has struck midnight the Twitter community’s favorite late-season fantasy running back. Laird produced only 54 total yards against a giving Giants defense in Week 15 and saw teammate Miles Gaskin total 72 yards on just 11 total touches.

Gaskin is likely to handle the majority of rushing attempts, limiting Laird to just passing game opportunities. Laird is a great story as an undrafted free agent from Cal, but his 4.61 speed and below-average burst make the chance of breaking a big run relatively minimal.

We project Laird at 39.4 rushing yards which are 20% below his implied total.

I would bet this 9-rated prop down to -120.

Ravens TE Mark Andrews

  • The Opponent: Browns (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (-148)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

The strongest connection for likely MVP Lamar Jackson this season has been with tight end Mark Andrews.

Andrews ranks fifth at the position with 89 targets and sixth with 58 receptions. He has produced regardless of the defense, ranking fourth with a 33.3% contested catch rate (PlayerProfiler).

In a game where the Ravens can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, look for the Jackson-Andrews connection to be featured prominently. In the first matchup between these two teams in Week 4, Andrews tallied four receptions and a receiving touchdown.

It is hard to see Andrews not reaching his per game average of 4.1 receptions in the most important game of the season for Baltimore. We project Andrews 20% over his implied total and would support betting this 10-rated prop down to -160.

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