The Calgary Flames (24-28-6) and Anaheim Ducks (32-23-3) will face off in a Pacific Division showdown Sunday evening. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Ducks are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o / -120u). The Ducks are a -180 favorite to win outright, while the Flames are +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Flames vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks.
Flames vs. Ducks Odds, Pick
| Flames Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +150 |
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -180 |
- Flames vs. Ducks Puck Line: Ducks -1.5 (+145), Flames +1.5 (-170)
- Flames vs. Ducks Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Flames vs. Ducks Moneyline: Flames +150, Ducks -180
Flames vs. Ducks Preview
Calgary Flames
This figures to be a busy week for Flames GM Craig Conroy, as the cellar-dwelling Flames will be looking to trade away several skaters who are among the better options expected to be on the market ahead of the deadline.
Conroy is reportedly shopping top forward Nazem Kadri, high-quality defender MacKenzie Weegar; and strong two-way winger Blake Coleman, among others.
Flames' fans have been begging for the team to commit to a legitimate rebuild, and it seems likely that the organization will have fully committed to that direction by the end of the week. The team will be fully incentivized to fully bottom out, as while the Vancouver Canucks will finish last in the league, spots two through six in the draft lottery are extremely tight.
Betting on NHL skaters to "tank" is never overly wise, and the Flames do have some quality young talents who will be desperate to prove themselves at the NHL level down the stretch. Jonathan Huberdeau's absence from the lineup, coupled with the likely upcoming trades, should provide ample opportunity for those skaters to receive greater usage.
Matvei Gridin will be a skater to watch down the stretch for the Flames. His stock has steadily risen since being drafted 28th overall in 2024, as he put up 79 points in 56 games last season in the QMJHL and has put up 29 points in 36 AHL games this season. He's been in a solid stretch of play at the NHL level of late, with four points and 16 shots on goal over the last seven games.
Over the last five games, Gridin has attempted 5.8 shots per game and seen his average time on ice rise to 14:59. The Flames have generally controlled play at a surprisingly high level over the last two seasons but severely lack scoring upside and have had a hard time finishing scoring opportunities.
While Gridin's game is far from well-rounded, he does project as a skater who can help the Flames in that regard, and it makes sense to see that he has already earned a spot on the team's top power play unit.
Calgary has played to a 47.37% expected goal share over the last ten games and allowed 30.17 shots against per 60. It will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup, and goaltender Dustin Cooley will likely face a pretty heavy workload.
Cooley has arguably been the best "backup" goaltender in the NHL this season and has helped to prevent the Flames from truly bottoming out. He's played to a +13.6 GSAx and a .921 save percentage, which is currently the best mark in the NHL.
Anaheim Ducks
It seemed quite logical to expect that the Ducks' rebuild would finally pay dividends this season. While Lukas Dostal's fantastic work in goal was the main reason they were mildly competitive last season, most detailed analyses suggested head coach Greg Cronin was among the worst coaches in the league.
It seemed logical to expect head coach Joel Quenneville would get much more out of a young core that seemed poised to break through, and to this point, that has been the case.
Backing Quenneville to win the Jack Adams was the first future I posted to my Action Network app profile this season, and while I am biased, it's frustrating to see he's not getting more credit for the turnaround.
At 32-23-3, the Ducks are not only a near lock to make the playoffs but are loosely in contention to win the soft Pacific Division. They've done so despite spending much of the last two months without numerous key skaters.
Frank Vatrano remains on the IR, while Troy Terry, Mikael Granlund and Ryan Strome are day-to-day. Still, the Ducks' injury situation is drastically better than it has been, because top forward Leo Carlsson has returned in top form following the Olympic layoff.
In Carlsson's first two games back in the lineup, he's put up two goals and two assists, which has been a great development to see not only for the Ducks but also for the many of us who backed him to score 60+ points this year at +270.
Though it's a tiny sample size of 17.3 minutes, Carlsson has benefitted from playing alongside the Ducks' best pure goal scorer in Cutter Gauthier recently, a combination that has surprisingly been highly uncommon this season. The Ducks' current top line of Gauthier, Carlsson and Chris Kreider has generated 3.81 xGF/60 and scored 6.92 goals per 60.
Lukas Dostal is expected to get the start in goal. He's played to a +2.4 GSAx and .895 save percentage in 40 appearances this season.
Flames vs. Ducks Prediction
The Ducks have been pretty consistent in playing some of the more high-event hockey of any team in the league this season, with the only meaningful period of time where that changed coming with the majority of their most skilled forwards out of the lineup. Their last 10 games have seen an average total of 7.0 goals per game and 57.4 shots per 60.
There are a number of prop bets that look enticing to me in this matchup, but my favorite look lies in backing Carlsson and Gauthier each to record a point at +100. The break seemingly came at a good time for Carlsson, who was able to get fully healthy and is looking more like the skater he was earlier in the season.
Gauthier and Carlsson have fared well in the rare moments they have been together this season, and it seems logical to expect that to continue moving forward. They also skate together on the top power play unit, so the stack is fully correlated.
I also see value in a smaller bet on Gridin to record three shots on goal at +175. He's been one of the more threatening Flames skaters recently, and his shot attempt volume and current roles suggest that this number may not be available for too many more matchups.
Pick: Leo Carlsson/Cutter Gauthier 1+ Point Each Parlay (+100; Play to -110), Matvei Gridin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+175; Play to +170)
