The Colorado Avalanche (35-7-9) and Montreal Canadiens (29-17-7) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-125o / +105u). The Avalanche are a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +114 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 -125o / 105u | -135 |
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 6.5 -125o / 105u | +114 |
- Avalanche vs. Canadiens Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+180), Canadiens +1.5 (-218)
- Avalanche vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 6.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Avalanche vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Avalanche -135, Canadiens +114
Avalanche vs. Canadiens Preview
Colorado Avalanche
It’s been hard to criticize Colorado this season with a nine-point cushion atop the standings, but it has hit a bit of a rough patch, going 4-4-2 over its last 10 games.
Currently, it's on the second night of a back-to-back after a 5-2 loss to Ottawa on Wednesday, a game in which the Senators held the Avalanche to a season-low 16 SOG and kept Nathan MacKinnon off the scoresheet. He’s now riding a four-game goalless streak.
While the underlying numbers aren’t bad by any stretch, they’re a step below Colorado’s usual standard, ranking 13th in xGF% (51.3) and 12th in xGA/60 (3.05) over its last 10 games.
With Mackenzie Blackwood starting last night, Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the nod tonight — and he’s been stellar this season. Wedgewood owns a 20-3-5 record with a .914 SV% and 10.1 GSAx. His 2.14 GAA ranks second in the NHL among qualifying goaltenders.
Montreal Canadiens
Perhaps the biggest storyline heading into this matchup is the Canadiens parting ways with goalie coach Eric Raymond yesterday. It’s an unusual move to see 53 games into a season, but one that might’ve been needed as they search for an answer in net.
The mix of Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes has been a clear weakness, with Dobes ranking 37th and Montembeault 55th in GSAx among goalies with at least 15 games played. The Canadiens also rank 28th in team SV% this year.
That said, the Canadiens often find a way, ranking third in the league in Goals For, which has helped offset the goaltending struggles.
Cole Caufield is tied for third in the league in goals, netting his 30th on Tuesday in a 3-2 OT win over Vegas, while Lane Hutson is one of five defensemen averaging at least a point per game.
It’ll be interesting to see who starts in net after Dobes’ 32-save performance against Vegas on Tuesday. Despite the box score, Montembeault looked sharp for nearly all of his last outing against Boston, but gave up two goals in a 12-second stretch that spoiled it.
Avalanche vs. Canadiens Prediction
I think the spot is key here. Traveling from Ottawa to Montreal isn’t much of a factor, but Colorado is reeling a bit as of late and on the second half of a back-to-back after a letdown last night.
On top of that, they have a home-and-home with the Red Wings on deck, easily the biggest matchups between those former rivals in quite some time.
For that reason and the Canadiens facing some questions in net, I'm opting for a player prop.
As mentioned above, MacKinnon hasn’t scored in four straight games, and he’s simply too good for that to last much longer.
He ranks second in the NHL in xG, third in SOG/60, and draws a favorable matchup against a Montreal team that sits 22nd in xGA this season, regardless of who starts in net tonight.
At -105, this feels like a slight buy-low spot on MacKinnon, who has scored in 26 of 51 games this year.
Pick: Nathan Mackinnon Anytime Goal Scorer (-105)
