The Dallas Stars (44-18-12) and Boston Bruins (42-24-8) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at TD Garden in Boston, Mass. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+114o / -135u). The Stars are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Bruins are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Bruins predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Bruins Odds, Pick
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 6.5 114o / -135u | -125 |
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 6.5 114o / -135u | +105 |
- Stars vs. Bruins Spread: Stars -1.5 (+205), Bruins +1.5 (-250)
- Stars vs. Bruins Over/Under: 6.5 (+114o / -135u)
- Stars vs. Bruins Moneyline: Stars -125, Bruins +105
Stars vs Bruins Kalshi Odds
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Stars vs. Bruins Preview
Dallas Stars
No team was hotter than Dallas in the early part of the year. From January 23 through March 14, the Stars went 14-0-1.
Since then, the wheels have wobbled. Dallas has managed just two wins in eight games, and the numbers have followed suit, ranking 15th in xGA/60 (3.14) and 25th in xGF/60 (2.87) during that stretch.
With eight games remaining, the playoff picture is largely set in the Central Division. Dallas appears locked in for a first-round matchup with Minnesota, sitting eight points back of Colorado, who holds a game in hand, and a six-point cushion over the Wild.
A divisional title is essentially out of reach, and focus has shifted toward getting healthy before the postseason.
Mikko Rantanen returned last Saturday, which is an enormous boost, but the Stars are still sorting through a lengthy list of absences.
Roope Hintz and Radek Faksa remain out, and the team has since added Michael Bunting and Sam Steel to that list. Steel is a steady contributor this season with 12 goals and 21 assists and Bunting was a nice depth addition at the deadline.
Hintz is optimistic about returning before the playoffs, while Faksa's timeline sounds a bit murkier, with a first-round return described as a possibility rather than a certainty. Bunting and Steel are considered shorter-term, and Dallas has already responded by calling up Cameron Hughes from the AHL, where he has posted 66 points in 63 games this season.
Between the pipes, Casey DeSmith drew the last start, which puts Jake Oettinger back in line for tonight. A couple of rough outings aside, he has been solid in March overall, posting a .906 SV% and 2.31 GAA across 10 starts.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins have won five of their last six, including back-to-back-to-back wins over Buffalo, Minnesota, and Columbus. It has been an impressive run, and while you have to cover your eyes a little when looking at the numbers, it keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Over those six games, Boston ranks 31st in xGA/60 (4.0) and has surrendered 15.51 high-danger chances per 60. At the same time, they are averaging 3.64 GF/60 during that stretch, well above their expected mark of 3.2.
That gap between actual and expected has been a trend all season, as it leads the league in GFAx, which is exactly why getting too deep into the stats is misleading with this group.
As far as overcoming 4.0 xGA/60, that can be credited to Jeremy Swayman. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a +8.7 GSAx, .920 SV%, and 2.27 GAA. He drew both starts of the back-to-back this weekend, and head coach Marco Sturm did not hesitate when asked about it. It's hard to argue with that logic given how Swayman has been playing.
It would be no surprise to see him back in net again tonight based on Sturm's response. The alternative is Joonas Korpisalo, who has made four starts this month and allowed four or more goals in three of them, posting a .886 SV% and 4.17 GAA.
With eight games to go, the Bruins are pretty firmly locked into at least one of the two Wild Card spots. They sit two points behind Montreal for third in the Atlantic, so closing that gap is not out of the question.
The three most likely first-round opponents are Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Buffalo, and each presents its own set of challenges. Boston does hold a 3-1 record against Buffalo this season, which is worth noting if that ends up being the draw.
Stars vs. Bruins Prediction
The Stars have been on the wrong side of some close games lately, losing four of their last six by a single goal. Dealing with injuries, they have not looked like themselves, managing just 2.46 xGF/60 during that stretch.
The Bruins, on the other hand, keep finding ways to win. They are the best team in the NHL on home ice at 27-10-1 with a +34 goal differential in those games, which is hard to ignore.
Outside of a couple of stretches this season, I have been wrong enough times waiting for Boston's negative regression, and at some point you have to adjust accordingly. The Bruins strike me as more of an eye test team this year, and from watching consecutive wins over Buffalo, Minnesota, and Columbus, right now they pass that test.
I am going to grab this line early expecting Swayman to get the nod again, and there may be some value in getting ahead of the starter announcement. If Korpisalo draws in instead, I still like Boston's chances while Dallas is in a bit of a rut.
Pick: Bruins Moneyline (+105)
