A rematch of the last two Western Conference Finals will take center stage Tuesday evening, as the Dallas Stars (13-5-4) and Edmonton Oilers (10-9-5) meet in the NHL's lone matchup of today. Puck drop is set for 9 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are priced at +180 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o / -120u). The Oilers are priced at -135 to win outright, while the Stars are priced at +114 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +114 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -135 |
- Stars vs. Oilers Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+180 ), Stars +1.5 (-218)
- Stars vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Stars vs. Oilers Moneyline: Stars +114, Oilers -135
Stars vs. Oilers Preview
Dallas Stars
The Stars have been a strong bet recently with a record of 7-2-1 over their last ten games, particularly as the betting market has seemingly been fairly low on the team.
My expectation is that recreational bettors have done very well backing the Stars recently, as they were likely less favored than most people would have expected in all of their recent wins over the Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken, Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers, and Vancouver Canucks.
In their most recent matchup versus the lowly Calgary Flames, the Stars closed as only -135 favorites, and were outplayed in an eventual shootout loss. It may look surprising that the Stars are +115 underdogs in Tuesday's matchup given how significantly they have outperformed the Oilers this season, so let's dive into what oddsmakers are likely seeing.
Relative to other Stanley Cup contenders such as the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, the Stars have not looked that fundamentally strong in even-strength play but have been able to mask that concern with some clinical finishing and hold the second-best power play in the league.
Over the last 15 games the Stars rank 17th with an expected goal share of 48.87% in even-strength play but have scored on 12.93% of shots taken in that span.
They offer a deep and highly talented offensive core and as a result are a likely candidate to finish chances off at a high rate, but oddsmakers have essentially taken a clear stance that they do not believe the Stars are as dominant as their recent record suggests.
The Stars' power play and top line look less overpowering on paper entering tonight's matchup, as Mikko Rantanen will be serving a one-game suspension. Matt Duchene will also remain sidelined with an upper-body injury.
Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz have been on fire of late, and it's not as though the Stars aren't capable of hanging in without Rantanen and Duchene, but it certainly makes this a more reasonable spot for a shaky Oilers defensive core to hang in.
Relative to other Cup contenders, the Stars' defensive core is somewhat of a weakness, one that was exposed by the Oilers in the last two postseasons when they eliminated the Stars. With Thomas Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Nils Lundkvist currently sidelined, only the top pairing of Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell looks truly convincing, which is a concern entering this matchup.
This start will likely draw a little added attention from Stars' netminder Jake Oettinger, who has been lit up by the Oilers in the previous two postseasons and was pulled in the first period of the series-deciding Game 5, which the Stars lost 6-3. Oettinger holds a +5.6 GSAx rating and a .902 save percentage in 15 appearances this season.
Edmonton Oilers
It's been debated by Oilers media if the team has changed its tactics this season, and when prompted with the question last week, head coach Kris Knoblauch stated that the team has not intentionally changed too much tactically, but that at this point the team was reviewing potential changes by design.
Knoblauch stating that the team had not intentionally changed its systems too greatly is interesting, as statistically their zone-exit strategies have looked a little different, which suggests players are straying from the systems that led the team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, while roster turnover has also likely played a role.
I've been reluctant to get too invested in the Oilers' issues early on this season, as they struggled through the first quarter of each of the past two regular seasons before turning it on down the stretch and in the postseason.
The one key difference this year is that the Oilers do not appear to be unlucky to hold a record of 10-9-5, whereas in the previous two seasons their underlying results were quite strong amid their slow starts in terms of results.
At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will return in this matchup or not, and his eventual return could prove to be noteworthy based on potential replacement value.
Adam Henrique has struggled mightily in a role as the team's third-line center, as units led by Henrique hold just a 32% goal share, and it is very realistic to think that even an aging version of Nugent-Hopkins offers a clear upgrade.
This is the Oilers' first home game since November 10th, as they just completed a daunting seven-game Eastern road swing, which featured dates versus all three Eastern Conference favorites. They played to a record of 3-3-1 during the road trip, and now have an opportunity to make up some ground in the playoff race with a softer schedule on the horizon.
Stuart Skinner has been confirmed as the Oilers' starting goaltender in this matchup. Skinner holds a +2.9 GSAx rating and .885 save percentage in 17 appearances this season. While Skinner certainly has not been overly sharp, his +2.9 GSAx rating does call attention to the fact that Edmonton's shaky defensive play has been the greater issue.
Stars vs. Oilers Prediction
As those who follow me in the Action Network app may have seen Monday, my initial favorite bet involving this game was parlaying the Oilers to win with over 5.5 goals. As the total has now moved even more than I expected or believe is warranted, I see more value in simply backing the Oilers to win at the current price of -140.
There's no disputing that it's been a horrid start to the season for the Oilers, and contrary to the previous two seasons, I'm less bullish on the potential of an eventual turnaround leading to another deep playoff run.
Still, they did finish up the road trip by grabbing three of four points from the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, with some positives to take away from each matchup.
Despite their strong record recently, the Stars' overall game has not looked that fundamentally strong, and their ability to score their way out of trouble is greatly reduced with Rantanen on the sidelines, while their blue-line currently looks fairly shaky.
It's not a widely available prop, but I also see value in backing Leon Draisaitl to finish with a positive rating at +135. As was the case last year, Draisaitl has been highly effective at both ends of the ice, and the Oilers hold a 65% goal share in even-strength minutes where Draisaitl has been separated from McDavid.
Plus/Minus does not include power play results, which is what makes this prop interesting in tonight's matchup, as the Stars are pretty average at even strength.
Dallas will likely try to employ Miro Heiskanen's pairing against McDavid's unit as much as possible, which will leave Draisaitl in some highly favorable matchups.
Given the +135 price tag, that has me interested in backing a player that finished with a +32 rating last season to hold a positive one in Tuesday's matchup.
Picks: Oilers Moneyline -135 (Play to -140), Leon Draisaitl Plus/Minus Over 0.5 +135 (Play to +125)
