The Edmonton Oilers (31-25-8) and Colorado Avalanche (43-10-9) will face off in a potential Western Conference Final preview Tuesday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-155o/+130). The Avalanche are a -175 favorite to win outright, while the Oilers are +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 6.5 -155o / 130u | +145 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 6.5 -155o / 130u | -175 |
- Oilers vs. Avalanche Spread: Oilers +1.5 (-155), Avalanche -1.5 (+130)
- Oilers vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 6.5 (-155o/+130u)
- Oilers vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Oilers +145, Avalanche -175
Oilers vs Avalanche Kalshi Odds
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Oilers vs. Avalanche Preview
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers started their daunting four-game road swing with somewhat of a statement win in Vegas Sunday night, as they earned a regulation win over the Golden Knights with one of their better defensive performances of the season, which is not saying all that much.
The road trip will now continue with dates in Colorado and Dallas, making the first three matchups versus the three most likely teams to win the Western Conference (outside of themselves), though those prices have much to do with the absurd Central Division bracket.
Looking strictly at the deadline, Oilers GM Stan Bowman seemingly did a pretty solid job of addressing his team's needs by bringing in Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy. Dickinson and Murphy have both fared well defensively this season while spending a ton of time versus elite competition and are high-quality penalty killers.
However, Bowman may potentially have already made a backbreaking decision earlier in the year by opting to bring in Tristan Jarry to attempt to improve the Oilers' goaltending. Jarry has played to a .862 save percentage and 3.96 GAA across 13 appearances with the Oilers.
In the same span, Connor Ingram has played with an .892 save percentage and 2.78 GAA. He got the start on Sunday and could potentially get the nod in this matchup, which would illustrate that he is the clear number-one option for the time being.
Despite its flaws, Edmonton is still priced as the third favorite to win the Western Conference at +550. That price revolves heavily upon the weakness of the Oilers bracket however, and not oddsmakers' belief that they are actually a better team than the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.
More than any other Stanley Cup contender, the Oilers' recipe for success is quite obvious and one-dimensional. It will lean on a historically strong power play, one high-quality defensive pairing, and two strong lines to attempt to cover up flaws further down the lineup.
Dickinson's addition makes it possible for the Oilers to have two high-quality lines and potentially a solid checking line, but even still, it's not overly realistic for the bottom six to do anything but attempt to play even with teams such as the Colorado Avalanche.
Whether or not Jake Walman is able to elevate his game will play a huge role in determining whether or not the Oilers can make some noise once again this postseason. On paper Walman and Connor Murphy offer a solid second pairing, but Walman has had a down year while dealing with various nagging ailments.
It's a near impossibility, especially looking at the top dogs in the Western Conference, to make a run leaning on one high-quality defensive pairing, and the team simply needs Walman and Murphy to form an effective second tandem.
Since December 3rd, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard have combined for 184 points across 108 man games and rank first, third and fifth, respectively, in league scoring.
The Oilers are 20-14-3 in that span, having allowed 3.27 goals against per game. The vast majority of Oilers game scripts versus quality sides feature the same game script, in which Edmonton's top talents are played hefty minutes in an attempt to overcome the team's other concerns.
Colorado Avalanche
Even had the Avalanche stood pat at the deadline, they would have remained the outright favorite. They hold a +83 goal differential, the best mark in the league by a wide margin, as well as a league-leading 56.42% expected goal share. Beyond their excellent offensive upside at even strength, they hold the third-best xGA/60 rating and have received strong play in goal from both Scott Wedgewood and MacKenzie Blackwood.
In acquiring Nazem Kadri from the Calgary Flames, who was a key piece of Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup team, GM Joe Sakic had a massively successful deadline. Acquiring Kadri obviously helps Colorado specifically, but preventing him from going to the Stars and quite specifically the Wild, whose center depth is concerning, offers a significant two-way swing.
Sakic also brought in Nicolas Roy, who should fit well as the team's third-line center, and made a quietly savvy move in bringing in Nick Blankenburg, who offers strong insurance if one of the team's regular six defenders goes down with injury during what could be a lengthy playoff run.
As this Avalanche roster knows full well after an unlucky seven-game loss to the Stars last season, nothing is guaranteed in the NHL playoffs, as it's hard to entirely control the outcome once the games are inevitably so tight and puck luck, therefore, becomes a significant factor in determining series winners.
At +275 the Avalanche are one of the more heavily favored teams we have seen in recent memory, and that's despite being guaranteed a difficult second-round matchup.
The only meaningful concern for the Avalanche has been their power play, which ranks 31st in success rate this season. Even for such a high-powered team, even-strength scoring could dry up to some extent in the playoffs, and it could be difficult to find success with a power play clicking just 15.8% of the time.
Oilers vs. Avalanche Prediction
The Oilers will look to prove they are a better team now than when these sides last met in November, when the Avalanche absolutely dismantled Edmonton on the road en route to a 9-1 victory.
Edmonton played a much cleaner game Sunday in Vegas and its deadline acquisitions should prove useful, but it's still difficult to imagine they will hold Colorado below three goals in this matchup.
Tons of bettors will be targeting same-game parlays involving offense from both sides and big nights from various superstars, and I do believe this is a good spot to keep it chalky and have some fun with those looks. The total opened at 6.5 (-140) on Monday, which was the first bet I locked in on this matchup.
At the current price I still lean heavily toward the over, but at this point I'm seeing a little more value in backing Martin Necas to record two points at +140.
Necas was incredible in the Olympics for Czechia, registering eight points in five games, and he's been the Avs' best player since the restart with 14 points across seven appearances. He was held off the scoresheet Saturday in a tight-checking matchup versus the Minnesota Wild, but it seems unlikely that this game will feature a similar script.
At +140 I believe we are getting a good number for Necas to record two points in a game sporting a total of 6.5.
Pick: Martin Necas Over 1.5 Total Points +140 (Play to +130)
