Freedman’s Favorite NHL Prop (Feb. 9): How Many Saves Will Laurent Brossoit Make?

Feb 09, 2019 11:53 AM EST
Credit:

James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Myers and Laurent Brossoit

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Saturday, he looks at the Senators-Jets game (2 p.m. ET) and the saves prop for Winnipeg goalie Laurent Brossoit.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional official player prop picks. On Saturday, we have loaded 14-game NHL and nine-game NBA slates.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

52-41-5, +13.19 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 17-16-0, -0.40 Units
  • NHL: 9-8-4, +2.66 Units
  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
  • Exotics: 3-0-0. +0.90 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NHL Prop (Feb. 9): Laurent Brossoit Saves Over/Under 27.5

  • Over 27.5: -115
  • Under 27.5: -115

We have a massive NHL slate today, and the Senators-Jets game (2 p.m. ET) has caught my eye.

Given that the Jets have a back-to-back series this weekend with an afternoon game tomorrow in Buffalo against the Sabres, backup goalie Laurent Brossoit is expected to start today.

His saves prop offers significant value.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Brossoit projected for a slate-high 34.5 saves. That number is high, but this year the Jets have allowed the fourth-most shots on goal per game with 33.02.

The Senators have averaged 29.74 shots on goal this season, but over the past month that number has jumped up to 32.09 (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models), and the Senators could more aggressive than usual in taking shots given that they are significant +165 underdogs.

In his 13 games (12 starts), Brossoit has averaged 32.7 saves with a .940 save percentage. Only twice in his games with at least 50 minutes played has he had fewer than 28 saves. In his past five starts he has averaged 35.6 saves, surpassing the 27.5-save threshold in each game.

At 27.5, I’d bet the over to -155. At -115, I’d bet the over to 29.0.

The Pick: Over 27.5 (-115)

 


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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