The Minnesota Wild (14-7-5) and Edmonton Oilers (11-10-5) will offer one of the NHL's more intriguing matchups out of Tuesday's ten-game slate. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are priced at +170 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (O -115 / U -105). The Oilers are -150 favorites to win outright, while the Wild are priced at +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 6 -115o / -105u | -150 |
- Wild vs. Oilers Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+170 ), Wild +1.5 (-205)
- Wild vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6 (O -115 /U -105)
- Wild vs. Oilers Moneyline: Wild +125, Oilers -150
Wild vs. Oilers Preview
Minnesota Wild
The Wild were expected to finish third in the Central Division by oddsmakers, which was something I agreed with entering the season. With a record of 8-0-2 over the last ten games, they have opened up a safe lead over the Chicago Blackhawks for the final divisional seed, but will certainly be fighting an uphill battle to catch either of the Dallas Stars or Colorado Avalanche.
Having a strong 1-2 punch in goal tends to be an underrated angle in finishing high up the NHL's regular season standings, and it is something that has certainly worked in favor of the Wild so far this season, as they offer an excellent tandem with Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt.
The Wild have confirmed that Wallstedt will start Tuesday's matchup. Wallstedt was once regarded as the top goaltending prospect in hockey, and throughout a small sample of nine games this season, he has proven why in playing to a league-leading .938 save percentage and +7.3 GSAx rating.
Goaltending is highly volatile, and it is unlikely Wallstedt will be this dominant moving forward, but he certainly still projects as a better-than-average option currently and offers the Wild's most noteworthy edge in this matchup.
As you would expect, considering the fact that the Oilers are fairly large favorites in this matchup, the Wild's recent underlying results are not nearly as strong as you would expect given their record of 8-0-2. They hold an expected goal share of 49.21% over the last ten games, but their goaltenders have played to an absurd save percentage of .954.
For reference, Connor Hellebuyck became the first goaltender to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price in 2015 with a .925 save percentage last season, which helps illuminate oddsmakers' clear stance that the Wild's current process is not sustainable entering this matchup.
Over the last ten games, the Wild have generated just 2.81 xGF/60, which is the fourth lowest mark in the NHL. They offer some really potent offensive pieces in the top six, such as Kirill Kaprizov and Matthew Boldy, but as someone who's been high on this team relative to expectations the last two seasons, it's still hard to argue that their offensive play has been better than average.
As expected, the Wild's second line of Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Marcus Johansson has done an excellent job defensively while receiving fairly difficult usage, but has not generated many scoring chances at the other end of the ice. In 112.1 minutes of even-strength play, they have generated just 2.68 xGF/60 and only 54.6 shot attempts per 60.
The Oilers were humiliated 8-3 by the Dallas Stars in their last matchup on home ice last Tuesday, but were able to respond with a convincing 4-0 win over the Seattle Kraken on Saturday. They will have a significant rest advantage in this matchup, as the Wild will be playing for the third time in four nights, while they will be playing for just the third time in a week.
It's obviously been a highly disappointing start to the season for the Oilers, and contrary to their slow starts over the previous two seasons, their underlying metrics do not suggest a turnaround is a guarantee.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' return to the lineup Saturday was one key development for a side in need of improved results, as the former 100-point scorer recorded a goal and an assist in his first game back in the lineup. While it's unlikely Nugent-Hopkins will even be a point-per-game player this season, his even-strength impact could be significant based on the expected replacement value that he will offer over Adam Henrique as the team's third-line center, as the unit had been getting caved in with Henrique manning the middle.
Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard were both far from dominant last season, but the Oilers will still be able to garner strong results, as they were arguably the most underrated defensive team in hockey, playing to the eighth-best xGA/60 rating in the NHL. As they have been drastically worse defensively this season, it has shed more light on the fact that their goaltending options are highly concerning.
The numbers suggest that the amount of shots the Oilers are giving up isn't the greater issue, but it's been the full-fledged defensive breakdowns coming after missed assignments in the defensive zone that have led to their ugly goals against average. Most fans would agree with that; at their best, the Oilers are not generally going to be a defensive powerhouse, but a team that hangs in defensively based on their ability to drive possession and play at the other end of the ice.
Considering the offensive upside by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it's realistic to think the Oilers can manage the odd defensive breakdown and still find success, but they've fallen out of a winnable balance this season even for a time with two of the game's best offensive skaters, and the question will be how much their defensive play can improve down the stretch, as in time it still seems quite likely that the team's offensive results will stabilize.
Jake Walman will remain sidelined for this matchup and is a noteworthy absence as he has generally been excellent during his time with the team. Walman is expected to return by the end of the week.
Skinner will start in goal for the Oilers. He's played to an .885 save percentage and 3.00 GAA in 19 games played this season, but his +4.0 GSAx rating suggests that Edmonton's suspect defensive play has been a greater concern than Skinner's play in goal.
Wild vs. Oilers Prediction
The Oilers have a significant rest advantage in this matchup, and the turnarounds that we have seen over the last two seasons suggest they are capable of trending into better form the rest of the way. The Wild's 8-0-2 tear has been carried by unsustainably strong goaltending, and their overall process looks much more modest than their record suggests.
Still, the idea that the Wild are due to come down to earth is being baked into the betting prices on this matchup, and I don't really see much value in fading them given that the Oilers are still fairly significant favorites.
With that said, I do believe the Oilers should carry more of the overall play in this matchup versus a Wild side that is generating very little offensively. It could be a decent game script to target Wild forwards coming in under their shot prop total, particularly if Wallstedt is much sharper than Skinner, which is realistic.
Backing Eriksson Ek to record under 2.5 shots on goal at a price of +128 really sticks out to me as a good bet. Ek is one of the best defensive skaters in the NHL, and it's no surprise that head coach John Hynes has used him and Boldy head-to-head versus opposing top lines and given them plenty of defensive zone starts.
As a result of their usage, the Wild's second line has generated very few shot attempts per 60, and Ek in particular has just 16 shot attempts over the last five games, coming in under 2.5 shots in four of those five matchups.
It's not going to be a fun sweat with Ek manning the net front on the Wild's top power play, but a price of +128 for Ek to come in under 2.5 shots on goal looks to provide value in a matchup versus an Oilers side that's greatest defensive issue has been shot quality and not quantity.
Pick: Joel Eriksson Ek Under 2.5 Shots on Goal +128 (Bet365, Play to +123)
