The Minnesota Wild (28-13-9) and Montreal Canadiens (27-15-7) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Canadiens are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 . The Canadiens are a 55-cent favorite to win outright, while the Wild are 46-cents to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
- Wild vs. Canadiens Spread: Canadiens -1.5 (34-cents), Wild +1.5 (68-cents)
- Wild vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 6.5 (50-cents / 51-cents)
- Wild vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Wild 46-cents, Canadiens 55-cents
Wild vs. Canadiens Preview
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota made me look silly last night after I told you fine people to bet the Maple Leafs.
But I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The Wild have not just one of the best goaltender tandems in the league, they also have a proven track record of winning on the road, with one of the more tantalizing rosters in recent memory.
How did Jon Hynes get so lucky? For years, I’ve bashed Hynes as a mediocre coach at best, and now he gets to coach a roster like Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and the dynamic Quinn Hughes.
I noticed as the calendar year turned that Minnesota’s expected goals were starting to trend downward, but it managed to pick itself back up – posting a 10th-best 52.76 xGF% since January 1.
However, on the defensive end, it needs to be better, as the Wild are playing to a 2.82 xGA/60.
Luckily, on the power play, that’s where the Wild excel the most, posting a season-wide 23.2% success rate – good enough for 10th in the league, but in the past 10 games, they’re also playing to a 7.3% in expected goals for on the man advantage, including scoring twice on against Toronto last night who have been exceptional on the PK.
Last night, Filip Gustavsson started, so all signs point to Jesper Wallstedt getting the nod in Montreal.
Wallstedt has certainly taken a massive fall from grace since taking the league by storm earlier in the season. In his past 10 starts, he’s playing to a lowly -5.5 GSAx to go along with an .874 SV%.
Montreal Canadiens
I may have an unreasonable love for the Canadiens this season, because what a wagon they have been this season.
Fresh off a three game road trip, the Habs get to come back home, where they have enjoyed a decent amount of success.
Nick Suzuki continues to be one of the league’s brightest, yet under-the-radar stars in the NHL, but he’s progressively gotten better ever since he’s come into the league. Cole Caufield’s ability to score the puck is going to keep the Habs in the conversation for years to come.
Not only that, Lane Hutson is, in my opinion, one of the brightest defensive players this league has to offer.
Montreal’s 5-on-5 play has done fairly well over time, ranking near the middle since 2026 came about on both the offensive and defensive side of things.
Typically though, I wouldn’t be concerned about Montreal’s power play with all the puck movers and goal scorers it has to offer, but its play has slowed down a bit over the past 10 games. The Habs are currently 21st in expected goals while having the man advantage.
Lastly, and probably the most important part, is the goaltending.
If the Habs truly want to be a contender for years to come, they need to improve the goaltending. Sam Montembeault has been brutal all season, and Jakub Dobes is hardly a number-one goaltender.
Wild vs. Canadiens Prediction
I’m always a sucker for decent value, and I think Minnesota has a chance to pull this one off after truly clobbering the Leafs last night.
With the puck movers that the Wild have, I think they can make things rough for Montreal’s goaltending.
Not just that, the Wild are actually better on the road than Montreal is at home, so that’s a decent value play.
What’s also substantial is that the Wild have yet to lose in regulation on the back-end of back-to-backs. I’m taking them straight up.
Pick: Wild ML
