The Nashville Predators (26-24-7) and Dallas Stars (35-14-9) will face off in an exciting Central Division showdown Saturday evening. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are priced at +170 to cover the puck line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (-110o / -110u). The Stars are priced at -150 to win outright, while the Predators are priced at +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Predators vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Predators vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Predators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 6 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 6 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Predators vs. Stars Spread: +1.5 (-205), -1.5 (+170)
- Predators vs. Stars Over/Under: 6 (-110u / -110o)
- Predators vs. Stars Moneyline: Predators +125, Stars -150
Predators vs. Stars Preview
Nashville Predators
After authoring a highly disappointing 2024-25 campaign, the Predators started the season 8-13-4 and, on December 1st, had the fewest points in the league. Since that point they hold a record of 19-11-3 and are now only two points back of the Seattle Kraken for the Western Conference's final Wild Card spot.
Out of the pack of teams battling for the final Wild Card spot, there is a pretty solid argument that the Predators are actually the most formidable. Over the last 20 games they hold an expected goal share of 51.96%, while the San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings and Seattle Kraken have all offered well below league-average play.
While perhaps receiving another high first-round draft pick would be most beneficial for the organization considering they are not in true contention, this is a team that was built to contend for the time being. The team signed three high-profile free agents last summer: Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Jonathan Marchessault.
All three had highly disappointing 2024-25 seasons, while Skjei and Marchessault continue to offer below-average play this year. Stamkos has caught fire after a slow start to the season, and it's one key reason the team has shown improvement this year.
Over the last 36 games, Stamkos has put up 25 goals and 40 points. Over the last 15 games, he's put up 11 goals. He may not be the same two-way skater he used to be, but his excellent shot has more consistently shone through, and it's become easy to see once again why he has 611 career goals.
Nashville's current top line of Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly and Luke Evangelista has been highly effective, playing to a 69.3% expected goal share across 126.7 minutes of play and generating 3.74 xGF/60. They've been highly productive where it counts, scoring 5.21 goals per 60.
Among offensive trios to spend over 100 minutes together this season, the Stamkos-O'Reilly-Evangelista combination holds the second-best expected goal share in the NHL and ranks fifth in goals per 60.
The Predators' power play has also been in excellent form of late, as over the last 20 games, they hold a 29.6% success rate. The personnel on the unit are actually quite convincing, which suggests their power play should remain a strength the rest of the way.
Roman Josi is one of the better quarterbacks in the league; O'Reilly is a good option both in the bumper position and at the goal line, and Filip Forsberg is a strong shooter from the right flank. But Stamkos's one-timer from the left circle is obviously the "A" look, and there are enough wrinkles elsewhere to make cheating over to Stamkos difficult.
The Predators have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender for this matchup. There is a solid argument that they should try to offer Juustus Annunen more starts though, and from a betting perspective, there's arguably more value in backing the Predators currently if confirmed starts from Annunen mean longer prices.
Over his last ten starts, Annunen has played to a .911 save percentage and 2.63 GAA. Over his last 20 games (the same length of schedule), Juuse Saros holds an .887 save percentage and 3.45 GAA. As with any backup, Annunen has had the softer workload, but the disparity in form still appears to beyond that.
The Predators currently have zero skaters on the IR.
Dallas Stars
The Stars confirmed Friday that Tyler Seguin will be placed on long-term injured reserve and will not return to the lineup this season. As a result of the cap relief offered from Seguin's placement on LTIR and Dallas's record of 35-14-9, it is arguably the team that is most likely to make a significant move ahead of the trade deadline next Friday.
At the start of the year the Stars appeared to be a little too reliant on elite finishing ability and tremendous goaltending to be viewed in the same class as Central Division leader Colorado, but head coach Glen Gulutzan's side has started to offer a more complete game of late.
Since January 1st, the Stars have held an expected goal share of 56.71% and 2.8 xGA/60. After a surprisingly slow start to the season, Thomas Harley has started to come on strong, and it once again appears as though the team has two full-fledged number one defenders.
Harley had a strong showing for Canada at the Olympics and showed no signs of fatigue in Wednesday's win over the Seattle Kraken. The Stars may opt to bring in another top four ahead of the deadline, but Harley, Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell have all trended into better form recently, and suddenly the blue line is only a piece away from being one of the better units in the league.
Mikko Rantanen will remain sidelined for the foreseeable future, which does leave one notable hole in the lineup and on the top power play. Roope Hintz also missed Wednesday's game due to illness but could return to the lineup Saturday.
Versus Seattle, Gulutzan offered a top line of Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque, and Bourque took advantage of the opportunity with an assist and five shots on goal. Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene overtook Rantanen's and Hintz's roles on the top power play unit.
Prop bettors should be keen to keep an eye on the Stars' morning skate, as there will be some line shuffling. My expectation is that if Hintz returns, Duchene will remain on the top power play unit while Benn drops out, while Hintz would likely also skate on the top line.
Jake Oettinger rested on Wednesday, having just returned home from Milan, and will likely get the start in this matchup. Oettinger has played to a -1.0 GSAx and a .897 save percentage across 37 appearances this season.
Predators vs. Stars Prediction
From a sides perspective, the prices on this game look fair to me, and I'm not seeing value backing either team to win. Dallas has been absolutely dominant on home ice, but Nashville has played a fundamentally sound, well-rounded brand of hockey recently and appears well motivated to earn a playoff berth.
There does look to be value in riding with a red-hot Stamkos in the prop market. He's the primary shooter on what has been one of the best lines in the NHL that continues to spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone. Stamkos's one-timer is also the ideal look for the Predators' top power play unit, and they've shown strong puck movement recently, which has led to strong results.
The Stars are not an ideal matchup for Stamkos to rack up shots on goal, but due to his current roles his recent volume seems sustainable, and with that in mind at +110 there looks to be value backing him to record over 2.5 shots on goal.
Pick: Steven Stamkos Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 (Bet365, Play to +105)
