NHL 2022-23 Season Preview: Vezina Trophy Odds, Picks and Best Bets
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Igor Shesterkin (Rangers)
Oddsmakers view the race for the Vezina Trophy as a two-player contest in 2022-23. Standout Russians, Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy, are the clear-cut favorite and second-choice, respectively, around the market and for good reason.
Shesterkin is coming off a generational performance for the Rangers last season and Vasilevskiy has been the most consistent goaltender in the world for the past three seasons.
However, goaltending is volatile and this award is never as straightforward as it seems at the beginning of the year.
Here are our favorite bets to win the Vezina Trophy:
Michael Leboff: Spencer Knight, Florida Panthers (+17500, BetMGM)
I’m a bit skeptical about the Florida Panthers in general in 2022-23, but if they are good, I think Spencer Knight will play a pretty big role in what could be a breakout year for the former first-round pick.
After struggling out of the gates last season, Knight rounded into form in the second half by posting a .917 SV% and +5.62 GSAx over his final 15 appearances. Knight’s performance down the stretch was good enough that the Cats signed him to a multi-year contract during training camp, signaling that he’s going to be their guy sooner rather than later.
We’ve already seen a couple of goaltenders make the leap from blue-chipper to NHL star and you don’t have to look that far back to find a goaltender make a meteoric leap from one season to the next.
In short, you’re not going to get anywhere near this kind of number on Knight ever again before a season, so may as well take a shot now.
Nick Martin: Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames (+2100, BetMGM)
The trends suggest the Vezina is far more of a team award than many may realize. The past nine Vezina winners have come from teams finishing at an average of 4.33rd place overall in the regular season standings and nominees over the past four years have come from teams finishing at an average of 6.5th place.
Clearly, being on an elite team is a massive factor, even if it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg argument because having elite goaltending is obviously a massive causation toward team success. Regardless, it still seems factoring in team play is an underrated factor in voting and that goalies playing on good teams is important.
I believe Thatcher Demko is the best goaltender in the Pacific division and would likely yield even better numbers than Markstrom given the same team situation. However, Markstrom is set up to be in a considerably better situation, though Demko is my second favorite look on this market.
Markstrom should again be very well insulated playing behind an elite defensive team, that allowed the league’s third best xGA/60 last season at 2.25 and seems likely to build on that strength this season.
Markstrom played to a +10.8 GSAx with a .922 save % last season and was nominated for the Vezina, but obviously fell well short of Shesterkin.
Carol Schram: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks +2000 (BetMGM)
Demko, 26, has begun to hear his name mentioned in conversations about the NHL’s top netminders. Under his laid-back California exterior, the San Diego native is a highly competitive workhorse who loves to play. And year by year, he continues to work at refining his game under the tutelage of highly regarded Canucks goaltending coach Ian Clark, who has previously brought out the best of all-stars such as Roberto Luongo and two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky.
After assuming the starter’s role in Vancouver in the abbreviated 2020-21 season, Demko took a big step forward last year. He logged 64 games, third-most in the league, and posted a solid .915 save percentage for the second-straight year as he anchored the Canucks’ unlikely push toward the playoffs.
Looking under the hood, Demko’s numbers were even better. Clear Sight Analytics ranked him fourth in goals saved above expectations last season and Natural Stat Trick ranked him second in goals saved above average at 5-on-5.
Aiming to build off their second-half success last year and push for a playoff spot, the Canucks hope they won’t have to rely as heavily on Demko this season. If they need him, he’ll be there — delivering the consistency and reliability that helps inspire confidence in the skaters in front of him and earns notice from the NHL’s general managers, who vote for the Vezina winner.
Jonny Lazarus: Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars (+1800, Bet365)
Last years playoffs were a coming out party for Oettinger. He may have only played seven games in the postseason, but he finished third in goals saved above expected with 10.1, only trailing Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Dallas is to be considered one of the middle of the pack teams in the league, which gives Oettinger some added pressure to perform this season if the Stars want to get back to the playoffs. Last season, Oettinger skated to a record of 30-15-1, only giving up 2.53 goals against per game along with a .914 save percentage. He carried that momentum into the playoffs where he posted a 1.81 goals against average and a .954 save percentage, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Oettinger will look to build off of that strong performance last season and there is no denying the fact that he will be much more comfortable in net in his third NHL season. Dallas is strong enough to compete, but Oettinger can really give the Stars that extra edge and I think he is a strong candidate to win the Vezina trophy.
Tony Sartori: Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators +1000 (DraftKings)
While Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy are absolutely the deserving favorites for this award, Saros’ name will be in that class after this season. Saros has posted a SV% north of .913 in each of his six seasons in the league (excluding the 2015-16 campaign where he made just one start).
Finishing sixth in Vezina voting in 2020-21 and third last season, the national media has finally come around to Saros. Now that everyone’s eyes are on him, he should have as strong a shot as anyone in the league right from the jump.
Nothing much has changed over the past couple of seasons. He has always been this good, but people are finally starting to realize It. Can he put together yet another fantastic campaign in the crease?
I believe so.
First of all, he has a strong defense in front of him that typically limits the high-danger scoring chances. The addition of Ryan McDonagh should only bolster a blue line that was already defensively sound.
Saros' metrics back up the strong play as he finished in the top-half of the league in GSAx/60 when playing at 5-on-5. Nashville is poised for a big season and should be a playoff team once again.
While the Vezina should be an individual award, goalie record and team position definitely creep into the minds of voters.
Saros has been solid since day one and his consistency should result in him being a top-five finalist (at minimum) once again. That makes this 10/1 wager worth a shot.
Ryan Dadoun: Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames +2100 (BetMGM)
I was a bit surprised to find that Markstrom, who finished second in Vezina Trophy voting last season, was given odds outside the top five and well below Ilya Sorokin and Juuse Saros because I view Markstrom as having roughly the same likelihood of winning as them. In other words, I see his chances of winning as being meaningfully underappreciated.
It’s true the Flames are a significantly different team this year, but not a significantly worse one. Losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk was counteracted by the acquisitions of Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri along with defenseman MacKenzie Weegar. So the team in front of Markstrom is still a serious contender. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Darryl Sutter is still the head coach and his teams tend to perform well defensively.
It’s also true that Markstrom left something to be desired in 2020-21, but he was adapting to a new team and he showed last season that he’s made the adjustment. The 2021-22 campaign wasn’t an anomaly either. He performed very well in his final seasons with Vancouver and finished fourth in Vezina Trophy voting in 2020.
I wouldn’t say that Markstrom is my favorite to win the award, but for the odds offered, he has appeal.
Greg Liodice: Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders (+800, bet365)
Last year was Sorokin’s first year as a full-time starter and he did not disappoint. Even during a year that Islander fans would like to forget, the one constant was the Russian netminder. Had his rival netminder, Igor Shesterkin, not dazzled on Broadway, perhaps more eyes would’ve been placed on “The White Whale.”
For a team that had a rough year, Sorokin posted incredible numbers in 52 starts. He capped his year off with a 26-18-8 record and posted an impressive .925 SV% with a top-10 +12.8 GSAx. To top it all off, he was sixth in Vezina voting.
One thing he’s not afraid of is the bright lights. In his rookie season, Sorokin took the Isles past the Penguins in the first round in the playoffs. Prior to that, he was the KHL’s premier goalie and nabbed the Gagarin Cup MVP (similar to the Conn Smythe). With added pressure on the Islanders this season, eyes will be on Sorokin. However, based on his past, he’s no stranger to pressure and can thrive in any situation.
One of the aspects about Sorokin’s game that appeals to many is his flexibility. He’s so quick on his skates that he can stretch his body to make a highlight reel save and keep his team in the game. Mix that in with his stability in net, and he’s bound to create havoc for opposing teams.
The Islanders will need to be a playoff team for him to get any consideration for the Vezina, which means he’ll have to be on par with Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin.
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