On May 8, the NHL named Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid as the finalists for the Hart Memorial Trophy.
Since the announcement, the Polymarket contract "Hart Memorial Trophy Winner" has experienced quite a bit of movement as traders attempt to predict who will be recognized as the League’s most valuable player.
With the regular season finalized and the stats locked in, now it's just a matter of time until we know which player will be awarded the honor by journalists from the PHWA (Professional Hockey Writers Association). Figuring out the logic behind the writers’ decisions has proven to be a challenging task, even for seasoned traders.
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The Line on this Three Horse Race
Since opening, this market has seen significant volatility, with drastic sentiment shifts.
Each one of the three contenders has held the lead at some point; however, after analyzing the season, Polymarket traders now think that Edmonton Oilers captain McDavid has done enought to win his fourth Hart Trophy.
Let’s break down each candidate’s profiles.
McDavid finished the regular season leading the NHL in scoring with 138 points, which certainly helps and he's consistently been a major driving force every season for Edmonton. This past season was no different.
Both Kucherov and MacKinnon have similar “Yes” share prices.
Kucherov, who won the Hart in 2018-19, in particular has been the source of major market speculation as he actually held the lead over McDavid until the end of the season, however, started to lose steam down the stretch.
The 2023-24 Hart winner, MacKinnon put up another elite campaign, as he began the season leading in points. Although, there may be some recency bias with McDavid's recent surge, and traders believe his chances are slimming as we approach the official NHL announcement.
Decoding the PHWA Mindset
The on-ice data is finalized. The remaining lifetime of this contract is mostly subject to information flow, public discourse and the analysis of historic voting trends.
- The Position Bias: The PHWA tends to favor consistency and overall impact on the team. Centers have been favored in recent years, winning six of the last ten trophies.
- The Scoring Factor: Elite point production has been a key factor for some time now. Defensive players are a tough sell, as the last defenseman to win was Chris Pronger in 2000.
Some analysts point out that voter fatigue plays a big part and that McDavid, already a three-time winner, may suffer from such an effect. In this particular season, voter fatigue should be severely diminished as all three contenders are experienced players who have already won the trophy. There are no newcomers to support nor underdog narratives to establish.
Currently, McDavid’s dominance seems indisputable, but this market has proven to be highly volatile. Such is the complicated nature of awards given not on the basis of hard data, but by journalists’ opinions.
