NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs Ducks (Wednesday, November 1)
Via Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Durzi #50 of the Arizona Coyotes skates up ice against the Los Angeles Kings at Mullett Arena on October 27, 2023 in Tempe, Arizona.
Coyotes vs. Ducks Odds
| Coyotes Odds | -120 |
| Ducks Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110/ -110 |
The Ducks will return home after their first 4-0 road trip since 2013 for a matchup with the Coyotes.
With a record of 5-4-0, the Ducks are on pace to smash preseason expectations and look to avoid a letdown Wednesday in a winnable matchup.
The Coyotes enter off of an 8-1 thrashing of the lowly Blackhawks and would move to 5-4-0 themselves with a victory in this matchup.
Find my betting prediction, pick and preview for Coyotes vs. Ducks below.
Arizona entered this season with far higher expectations after bolstering its roster with legitimate NHL talent this summer. The additions of Sean Durzi and Matt Dumba gave the Coyotes blue-line significantly higher upside than we saw a year ago, and that has been the case early on as each has contributed in a number of different areas.
Coach Andre Tourigny's Coyotes overachieved their expected point total last season with their well organized team game. With a deeper and more talented roster at his disposal in 2023-24, the early returns have been quite solid.
The Coyotes have played to a 4-4-0 record but own the sixth-best Expected Goal Percentage (55.1%) across all strengths. Each of their games have been competitive throughout, and a mark of 4-4-0 is not indicative of their true quality of play.
The brilliance of the Coyotes' top power-play unit has been eye-opening in the early going. They have already produced a number of beautiful passing sequences leading to quality chances, and Sean Durzi is clearly fitting in well quarterbacking the unit. They have scored on 26.5% of man-advantage situations.
The Coytoes have looked quite sharp in even-strength play too, as evidenced by their fourth-best Expected Goal Rate in 5-on-5 play.
The Coyotes' 26th-ranked Penalty Kill has been their greatest concern early on. Even if they can't entirely clean up that flaw, their strong control of play at even strength and dominant power play keep their upside rather high.
The Coyotes also have a high quality starter in Karel Vejmelka between the pipes. He has played to a +2.2 GSAx with a .926 Save Percentage in five appearances this season and is likely to get the start Wednesday.
The Ducks were priced with the second-shortest odds to finish with worst record in the NHL this season. It's early, but they are on pace to smash those expectations because of incredible play from unexpected sources.
Frank Vatrano has has dominated thus far with nine goals and 10 points in nine games. Mason McTavish entered the league as an elite prospect and has shown why with 11 points in nine contests so far. Seasoned veteran Ryan Strome has also put up 11 points in nine games.
Each of those three options could have more productive campaigns than expected, especially McTavish, but none are likely to finish near the point-per-game plateau. Once they slow down, the Ducks offense should look more one-dimensional with the bulk of the offense coming from the top line.
The Ducks own an xGF% of 50.25% and have not been lucking their way into wins early on. Aside from parts of the Penguins game, the Ducks have played step-for-step with opponents. Whether or not Anaheim can continue to play at such a level remains to be seen considering this is still clearly a developing roster.
Goaltender John Gibson was injured against Pittsburgh on Monday and is unlikely to make this start. The stats say that does not actually hurt Anaheim's upside though.
Lukas Dostal has been sharper than Gibson this season with a +5.5 GSAx and .921 Save Perentage in five appearances, and that was the case as well last year.
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Coyotes vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Ducks have played surprisingly well to open the season and have earned their strong 5-4-0 record. Their perfect 4-0 Eastern Conference road swing has gotten them a little more respect from oddsmakers considering the close prices in this matchup.
Three weeks ago, I would have predicted this game would open with the Coyotes priced around -145.
On paper the Coyotes roster still deserves to be power ranked well ahead of the Ducks, and I am going to stick to my preseason beliefs about these teams with this pick.
The Ducks have earned a closer price than that given their surprisingly strong play, but this still looks like a good spot to sell high on their early overachievement as they return home from a lengthy road trip.
Any number better than -130 for the Coyotes to win this game is a play in my book.
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