NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 (Saturday, April 27)
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Panthers vs. Lightning Odds
| Panthers Odds | -125 |
| Lightning Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Panthers vs. Lightning Game 4 on Saturday, April 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
And just like that, the Tampa Bay Lightning's season could come to an end.
Down 3-0 in their best-of-seven series versus the Florida Panthers, the Bolts need to run the table against their in-state rivals if they hope to stay in the running for the Stanley Cup. The problem is Tampa Bay has been outclassed every step of the way.
The Atlantic Division winners have dominated possession and production metrics, putting the Lightning at a disadvantage in every contest. However, the Panthers advantage was considerably less pronounced in Game 3 on Thursday night.
With their backs against the wall, we're expecting the Lightning to revert to their defensive shell again as they try to fend off elimination. Although it might not be enough to help them secure a win, it should result in a low-scoring affair in a must-win Game 4.
As was the case throughout the regular season, Florida has flexed its offensive muscles to gain an advantage early in the playoffs.
The Panthers delivered 31 high-danger and 58 scoring chances through the first two games of the opening-round series, out-chancing the Lightning by a substantive margin. Still, they managed just a fraction of that as the visitors in Game 3. In that contest, the Panthers were held to just 23 scoring opportunities, barely scraping by with a paltry six high-danger chances.
There's also been an inverse relationship between output and production relative to those production metrics. In the two home games in which they absolutely dominated the visitors, the Panthers mustered just three 5-on-5 goals. However, they tallied four goals at 5-on-5 on the road, boosting their shooting percentage outside of normal range. Florida should come back down to earth in short order.
More impressively, the Panthers hamstrung the Lightning in their own barn. Florida put together a defensive effort for the ages, asserting themselves in both ends of the ice. Tampa Bay was held to a laughable four high-danger chances, failing to generate anything meaningful in the Panthers' end. That's an indicator of what to expect on Saturday, with the Panthers insulating Sergei Bobrovsky in what they are hoping will be the series finale.
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The Lightning's downtrodden performances aren't limited to the postseason, and that could be a bad omen for what's to come.
Tampa Bay overcame some disappointing metrics toward the end of the regular season, overachieving relative to its underlying metrics. In doing so, they may have exhausted their puck luck, suggesting that the end of their season is nothing more than a formality.
Since March 2, the Bolts accumulated a dynamite 13-5-2 record in the regular season, helping them secure a playoff berth. But a lot of that success is contraindicated in their analytics. Over that stretch, the Lightning compiled the 11th-worst expected goals-for rating in the NHL, yielding below-average possession and production metrics. As we are seeing, that ineffective play has spilled into the postseason.
Tampa Bay was lifeless in its Game 3 defeat. The wild-card squad was out-possessed, out-shot, and out-chanced in the loss, reinforcing those concerning trends from the end of the regular season. With their season-long PDO still hovering above 1.000, further correction is anticipated.
The good news is Andrei Vasilevskiy is poised for a bounce-back effort after a disappointing start last time out. After stopping 92.2% of shots through the first two games, the Russian netminder was torched for four goals on 30 shots in Game 3. The Lightning's best chance of salvaging this series comes on the strength of Vasilevskiy's shoulders.
Panthers vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
Based on the most recent metrics, expected defensive shells, and play from both goaltenders, we're expecting goals to be at a premium in Saturday's matinee. The Panthers can't expect similar output with their diminished production, and the Lightning have been trending downward since the end of the regular season.
There may be a playable edge in backing the visitors as short favorites, but our preferred entry point is taking the under at plus money. The most appealing angle is Under 6 at +105, but you wouldn't be faulted for laying chalk to get it at Under 6.5.
Pick: Under 6 (+105)
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