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Sharks vs. Stars Odds & Prediction | NHL Betting Preview (November 11)

Sharks vs. Stars Odds & Prediction | NHL Betting Preview (November 11) article feature image
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Kavin Mistry/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: San Jose Sharks celebrate a goal

  • San Jose heads to Dallas on Friday night on the second half of a back-to-back.
  • Both teams have been scoring goals, even if they've also allowed a few too many during that stretch.
  • Below, Grant White explains why he's targeting the game total – and he's also got a moneyline lean.

Sharks vs. Stars Odds

Sharks Odds +202
Stars Odds -250
Over/Under 6 (-110 / -110)
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV BSSW
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The San Jose Sharks kicked off a four-game road trip in disappointing fashion, dropping the opening game to the St. Louis Blues on Thursday night.

Now, they’ll have to pick up the pieces in a hurry, traveling to take on the Dallas Stars on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Stars are also coming off a humbling loss, albeit their first since Oct. 29. Still, their metrics are superior to the Sharks, and that’s reflected in the betting odds of this Western Conference showdown.

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San Jose Sharks on Scoring Binge

San Jose has abandoned any semblance of defensive zone coverage, preferring to play a free-flowing brand of hockey. The Sharks rank third to last in scoring opportunities at five-on-five, ranking marginally better in high-danger chances, allowing the 11th-most.

Those increased chances have resulted in more goals against, with Sharks’ goalies combining for the second-worst save percentage and second-most goals against at five-on-five in the NHL.

We’re not anticipating any growth from the Sharks on the road as they compete on the second consecutive night.

However, poor defensive play hasn’t come at the expense of offensive abilities. The Sharks are creating a plethora of opportunities each time out. Led by Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier, the Sharks have attempted no fewer than 10 high-danger chances in five straight games, averaging 13.6 over that stretch.

They’ve been equally impressive in creating scoring opportunities recently, directing 32 or more chances in three straight, with a rolling average of 35.0 per game.

Efficient offensive outings have yielded above-average scoring, with the Sharks recording three or more goals in six straight. Moreover, a significant chunk of their goals has come at five-on-five. Fourteen of San Jose’s 22 tallies have come with five skaters on the ice, but with solid underlying production metrics, we’re not anticipating the offensive well drying up just yet.


Dallas Stars Also Filling Net

A coaching change has made all the difference for the Stars, who transformed from a defensively stout team to an offensive juggernaut.

Dallas is averaging the seventh-most goals per game at five-on-five and the fifth-most across all strengths, highlighting their affinity for scoring under the Peter DeBoer regime. Those skills have been even more evident over their current schedule, with Dallas scoring five or more in three of its previous four outings.

Although the Stars have been adept at scoring, they’ve been less structured defensively. Defensive lapses haven’t come back to haunt them frequently, but their metrics point to an impending collapse soon.

The Stars have allowed 10 or more quality chances in seven of their last nine games, out-chancing their opponents just three times over their previous seven. However, the 5-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets last time out was the only catastrophic defeat the team has suffered.

Nevertheless, we’re anticipating opponents’ scoring to come more naturally in Stars games over the coming games. Dallas’s PDO has inflated to 1.040, the second-highest in the league, and given their questionable metrics, a correction phase seems inevitable.


Sharks vs. Stars Pick

Considering the Stars’ untenable metrics, there may be value in backing the Sharks on the second night of a back-to-back. But with the over teetering toward plus money, we’re inclined to play the recent trends and bet there are at least seven goals in this one.

The Sharks will be tired, compromising their already lackluster defensive play. At the same time, the Stars have allowed teams to walk all over them in their own end.

Backing the over is our preferred play, but you wouldn’t be wrong to take a stab with the Sharks moneyline.

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