NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Pick & Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 3 (Monday, May 8)

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds

The Edmonton Oilers may be the lower seed, but they entered their second-round matchup against the Vegas Golden Knights as the betting favorites.

More importantly, they reinforced their position as the team to beat after splitting the series' first two games at T-Mobile Arena.

Now, the Oilers return home for the next two games, starting with Game 3 on Monday night. Kudos to the Golden Knights, who have contained Edmonton's scoring chances at home.

However, they'll face a more sincere challenge with the Oilers using the last change to their advantage at Rogers Place.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has done well to make the most of its scoring opportunities, but its increase in scoring and limited production has it teetering on the edge of regression. So far this postseason, the Golden Knights have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in five of their seven outings.

Likewise, scoring opportunities are diminished, with the expansion franchise exceeding 21 on two occasions.

Counterintuitively, Vegas has seen an increase in scoring, recording three or more goals at five-on-five in all but two of those contests, with a playoff-best 11.2% shooting percentage. The Knights ended the regular season with a 9.0% benchmark, and considering the downturn in production, we're anticipating they enter a correction phase over the coming games.

The same can be said about Laurent Brossoit, who has played the best hockey of his career over the past month. Still, we've seen cracks in Brossoit's armor over the past couple of games, a downward trend that should continue against the high-octane Oilers. From April 1-27, the Knights goaltender stopped 93.0% of shots faced while leading his team to victory in nine of his 10 outings.

As we've seen early in the second round, those metrics were built on unsustainable ground. Throughout his career, Brossoit has a 90.8% save percentage and a much more modest .567 points percentage. He would inevitably come back down to earth, and that's exactly what we're witnessing with his 84.7% save percentage against the Oilers.

The Golden Knights are in the precarious position of expected regression on offense. Combine that with what we've seen from Brossoit, the cards are stacked against them as they embark north of the border.

The must-have app for sports bettors

The best betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Edmonton Oilers

What more can be said about the Oilers offense? They continue to run roughshod over their opponents, posting some of the most gaudy metrics in the NHL.

Through the first eight games of the postseason, Connor McDavid and company have eclipsed 11 high-danger chances five times. Moreover, there has been a surge in scoring opportunities, with Edmonton attempting 27 or more on six occasions.

On average, the Oilers are trying 28.9 scoring and 12.8 high-danger chances per game this postseason, above their regular-season averages of 24.9 and 11.0.

Predictably, this has positively impacted output. After struggling through the first few games, Edmonton has recorded at least four goals in its subsequent five games.

This increase was forecasted, as the Oilers scored on just 4.1% of their shots at five-on-five through Game 3 of the opening round. Since then, their shooting percentage has climbed to 8.3% but still remains below their regular-season benchmark of 9.1%. As such, sustained offensive success should be expected.

Still, we can't discount the Oilers' structure, as they remain one of the best defensive teams in the league. Edmonton ended the regular season by allowing the 10th-fewest scoring and sixth-fewest high-danger chances.

They've maintained that standard over their past few contests, limiting their opponents to nine or fewer quality opportunities in three of their last four. That advantage should be even more pronounced with the Oilers playing in their friendly confines.

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Pick

The Oilers have a substantial advantage on home ice, deploying their top scorers under ideal circumstances. That advantage becomes even more pronounced with Vegas' anticipated regression.

This line has shifted toward the home side, and I don't think it should be done moving. I'm backing the Oilers at home in Game 3.

Pick: Oilers -178

Bet the Oilers Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!