The Ottawa Senators (29-22-8) and Edmonton Oilers (29-24-8) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-120o / -100u). The Oilers are a -130 favorite to win outright, while the Senators are +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Senators vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Senators vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 -120o / -100u | +110 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 -120o / -100u | -130 |
- Senators vs. Oilers Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+180 ), Senators +1.5 (-220)
- Senators vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Senators vs. Oilers Moneyline: Senators +110, Oilers -130
Senators vs. Oilers Preview
Ottawa Senators
The Senators are becoming one of my favorite teams to watch. The roster has a handful of players who fly a bit under the radar, but as a group, they’re really solid for a team on the outside of the playoff picture.
Over its last 10 games, Ottawa has allowed just 2.4 goals per game, tied for the second fewest in the league, while offensively ranking second with a 60.75% expected goal share.
A lot of the defensive attention goes to Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, and rightfully so. Among 82 pairings with at least 300 minutes together this season, they are sixth in expected goals for and allow the second-fewest unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes.
Even more impressive, the only pairing that allows fewer is Ottawa’s third duo of Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence. That pair also boasts the seventh-best mark in goals allowed per 60. Looking at the full picture, it’s no surprise the Senators lead the league with the fewest expected goals against this season.
Offensively, it's not always great at finishing chances, but I don’t see it as a glaring weakness. Tim Stützle carries a nine-game point streak, and Drake Batherson is coming off a two-goal performance after a 10-game drought.
The biggest question by far is in net. Linus Ullmark and Leevi Meriläinen have struggled overall with -16.8 and -17.3 GSAx, but Ullmark has looked sharp since returning from a month-long absence, posting a 1.74 GAA and a 3-0-1 record in four games.
It’s not confirmed who will start tonight, but it would be tough to turn away from Ullmark given how he’s played lately.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have hit a rough stretch, losing five of their past six while allowing 4.66 goals per game. At this point, it feels like a nightly question of whether Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can simply outscore the damage.
It’s difficult to do, but Edmonton has piled up 44 goals over its last 10 games, the most in the league, and somehow gone just 4-6-0. The problems show up on special teams too, where its penalty kill ranks seventh-worst at 73.1%.
Those issues prompted a move on Sunday, acquiring Connor Murphy from the Blackhawks in an effort to stabilize the blue line and penalty kill. Murphy arrives from a Chicago team that leads the league in PK percentage, so the hope is that his impact translates quickly.
In net, it’s been a bit of pick-your-poison. Connor Ingram has allowed 10 goals in three February starts, while Tristan Jarry has given up nine in two. Ingram closed January strong, posting a 2.14 GAA and .913 SV% before the Olympic break. He has started the last two games, including a solid outing against Los Angeles.
With a grueling stretch of Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, and Dallas on deck, Edmonton could go with Jarry tonight, though no decision has been announced.
Senators vs. Oilers Prediction
The Oilers have won six of their last seven meetings against the Senators, but I think Ottawa gets one back tonight.
As always, when you pick against the Oilers, you run the risk of looking foolish if they put up eight goals as they did against Los Angeles last week. However, this feels like a solid opportunity to back a road team at plus money that’s playing better hockey at the moment.
I also like how Ullmark has looked since returning. With both netminders a concern for Edmonton, as well as their defense as a whole, Ottawa should have the edge.
Pick: Senators Moneyline (+110)
