The Ottawa Senators (38-24-10) and Tampa Bay Lightning (44-21-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+108o / -132u). The Lightning are a -162 favorite to win outright, while the Senators are +134 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Senators vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Senators vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 6.5 108o / -132u | +134 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 6.5 108o / -132u | -162 |
- Senators vs. Lightning Spread: Senators +1.5 (-188), Lightning -1.5 (+152)
- Senators vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (+108o / -132u)
- Senators vs. Lightning Moneyline: Senators +134, Lightning -162
Senators vs Lightning Polymarket Odds
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Senators vs. Lightning Preview
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa has become a compelling story down the stretch after sitting near the bottom of the standings at the start of the new year. Since then, the Senators climbed into the second Wild Card spot before Thursday’s shootout loss to Pittsburgh nudged them a point behind the Islanders for the final playoff spot in the East.
Still, the overall trajectory is pointing in the right direction, though it’ll have to navigate a tough six-game stretch with Tampa twice, along with Florida, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Carolina on the schedule.
As for the current outlook, the injury report has led to some shuffling on the blue line. Thomas Chabot is sidelined for at least four weeks after undergoing right forearm surgery, but the silver lining is that Jake Sanderson appears close to returning. Reports indicate he’s traveling with the team on this two-game Florida road trip and could suit up as soon as tonight.
With Chabot and Sanderson out, rookie Carter Yakemchuk has stepped into that void, making his NHL debut against Detroit this week. The seventh overall pick in 2024 recorded a goal and an assist, spent 51.3% of his 12:46 in the offensive zone, and Ottawa posted a +5 shot differential at 5-on-5 while he was on the ice.
Whether or not Yakemchuk makes a major impact going forward, the blue line depth is there regardless. Tyler Kleven and Artem Zub have both had strong seasons, and the rest of the roster has done its part to put Ottawa firmly in the mix.
Since the Olympic break, the Senators are 10-2-3, including 7-2-1 over their last 10. The offense has found trouble finishing, managing just 2.27 GF/60 at 5-on-5 in that span, but ranks third with 25.03 xGF, which is an encouraging sign.
If those chances start converting at a normal rate, Ottawa is already one of the best teams in the league at limiting opportunities, posting the fewest xGA this season.
The other piece to that puzzle is goaltending.
Linus Ullmark has ultimately sparked the turnaround, posting a .901 SV% and a 2.49 GAA over 12 starts since the Olympic break. While those numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, Ottawa has struggled to find consistent goaltending this season, so even modest stability has made a significant difference.
Ullmark was outstanding in a huge spot against Detroit this week, stopping 33 of 35 shots in a win, then followed it up with a 37-save performance against Pittsburgh to salvage a key point in a shootout loss.
His backup, James Reimer, has done his part as well, posting a .900 SV% and a 1.60 GAA over his last five starts. Much of that can be credited to the play in front of him, as Ottawa allowed just 6.4 high-danger chances per game and fewer than 20 shots on goal in each of those outings.
The Senators have excelled in those categories all season, giving up the fewest high-danger chances and the second-fewest shots on goal this season.
It’s unclear who will start tonight, though Ullmark would be the likely choice for a third straight start.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay has recorded a point in each of its last six games, collecting 10 of a possible 12, and the offense has looked largely unstoppable. It’s averaging close to five goals per game over that stretch, and even when trailing, a response has felt inevitable.
That was on display Tuesday against Minnesota, when the Lightning fell behind 3-1 before scoring five unanswered to take down one of the West’s top teams.
The production starts with the top line. The Hagel-Cirelli-Kucherov trio leads all forward combinations with at least 100 minutes logged in xGF/60 and has scored 5.26 GF/60 in just under 320 minutes together this season.
Nikita Kucherov continues to drive the offense. He’s tied for the league lead in points and has posted eight goals and 13 assists over his last 10 games, good for more than two points per game. Notably, 15 of those points have come at 5-on-5, which is always a good barometer for true impact.
With all that said, the Lightning are coming off a disappointing overtime loss to Seattle, though it looked like a game that would go their way more often than not. Tampa Bay outshot the Kraken 33-20 and controlled large stretches of play. It was simply a game where Seattle capitalized on its chances early, and the Lightning were chasing from there.
On the back end, the team has navigated injuries all season. The Lightning have been without both Ryan McDonagh and Victor Hedman for extended stretches, with each missing 30+ games.
McDonagh has returned, but Hedman missed the Seattle game for personal reasons and hasn’t played since leaving the March 19 matchup against Vancouver due to illness. He’s expected to miss at least one more game after tonight.
Despite those absences, Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser continue as one of the NHL’s best pairings. Remarkably, Raddysh has recorded 65 points in 64 games, including 20 goals, far surpassing his previous career high of six.
In net, Tampa Bay is on the front end of a back-to-back. Andrei Vasilevskiy has started the first leg in each of the last four such spots, and with Nashville on deck, that pattern is likely to continue.
Vasilevskiy's numbers have dipped slightly of late, with a .882 SV% and 2.59 GAA over his last five starts, though he’s allowed two goals or fewer in three of those outings. Overall, it's been another excellent season, ranking second in GAA (2.33) and fifth in SV% (.912).
Senators vs. Lightning Prediction
The only meeting between these two divisional opponents came in the season opener, a 5-4 Ottawa win, but that result is far enough in the rearview mirror that it doesn’t carry much weight.
At first glance, both the moneyline and total look fairly priced, but it’s hard to ignore how much Tampa Bay has leaned on its offense lately.
Over its last four games, the Lightning have consistently fallen behind early. They trailed Edmonton just 23 seconds in and have faced multi-goal deficits in each of the three games since, dropping two of them.
They’ve managed to salvage points along the way, but it’s fair to say Tampa has been living a bit dangerously, and Ottawa profiles as the type of opponent where that approach can catch up to them.
The Senators have been elite defensively, allowing the fewest high-danger chances and xGA this season, along with the second-fewest shots on goal and a league-low 45 goals against over their last 20 games.
Given that, laying -162 on a Tampa team that has struggled early in games is a less-than-appealing proposition.
The Action app shows smart money may support that angle, with just 20% of bets but 54% of the money backing Ottawa, a notable 34% split.
This sets up as a sneaky spot to target an underdog, and there are some good prices available if you shop around for the best number.
Pick: Senators Moneyline (+134, FanDuel)
