The St. Louis Blues (6-9-4) and Toronto Maple Leafs (8-9-2) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Maple Leafs are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-130o / +110u). The Maple Leafs are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Blues are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Blues vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Pick
| Blues Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -230 | 5.5 -130o / 110u | +105 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 5.5 -130o / 110u | -125 |
- Blues vs. Maple Leafs Spread: Blues +1.5 (-230), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
- Blues vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under: 5.5 (-130o / +110u)
- Blues vs. Maple Leafs Moneyline: Blues +105, Maple Leafs -125
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Preview
St. Louis Blues
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in each of St. Louis’ past five games. A big part of that trend has been the Blues’ inability to generate high-danger scoring chances.
This season, St. Louis ranks second to last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Consequently, it ranks 24th in goals scored per game.
Another variable contributing to these low-scoring affairs has been the Blues’ efficient defensive play. Entering this matchup, they rank eighth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Toronto Maple Leafs
St. Louis’ strong defensive play is likely to give Toronto issues. The Leafs are battling injuries to their forward group, most notably missing superstar forward Auston Matthews.
This team was already struggling before Matthews got hurt, as it has dropped each of its past five games. Toronto has scored three or fewer goals in four of those five outings.
While the absence of Matthews hurts offensive production, the blue line is still holding its own. Despite the losing streak, the Leafs are above league average in xGA/60.
As soon as Matthews left the lineup, goaltender Joseph Woll made his return. Coming off his first start of the season, Woll stopped 29 of 32 shots against the Chicago Blackhawks for a .906 save percentage.
There were five total goals scored in that contest.
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
The only reason this total is not lower than 5.5 is because St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington has had a tumultuous season thus far. That said, Binnington dominated Toronto in their two meetings last season.
Across those two outings, Binnington posted a 2-0 record with a .962 save percentage and 1.50 goals-against average. There were six or fewer total goals scored in each of those games.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+110 | Play to -115)
