The Tampa Bay Lightning (6-5-2) and Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-3) meet in an NHL powerhouse duel tonight. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EST at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and can be seen on ESPN+ nationally.
The Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-135o / +114u). The Golden Knights are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Lightning are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction and NHL pick.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -245 | 5.5 -135o / +114u | +105 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +200 | 5.5 -135o / +114u | -125 |
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+200), Lightning +1.5 (-245)
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 5.5 (-135o / +114u)
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Lightning +105, Golden Knights -125
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning saw their five-game win streak snapped Tuesday in a 3-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche.
After a shaky opening to the season, it’s fair to say the Bolts are back.
They weren’t a particularly lucky team to start, and Andrei Vasilevskiy was a tad slow out of the gate, which likely explains the rough start. However, in his previous four games, he has played to a .927 SV% and his GSAx is slowly starting to rise.
Beyond that, Tampa has been a really solid team. Similar to their counterparts, the Lightning have posted a top-10 xGF% and xGA/60 at 5-on-5, along with an elite penalty kill.
The only thing holding them back has been the power play, where they’re scoring at an uncharacteristic 13.6%.
With high-end scorers like Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, you’d think that it would be relatively easy to score with the man advantage – especially since Tampa has long been the standard bearer on the power play.
Still, over their last 24 attempts, the Lightning have only scored twice.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are in such a weird position, and yet I’m fascinated by them.
They’ve been hampered by injuries, with captain Mark Stone on LTIR all season, and just last night, Elliotte Friedman reported that goaltender Adin Hill may be out for a few months.
Luckily for Vegas, it’s a stacked roster, with Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner looking like they’ve been playing together their whole lives. Pavel Dorofeyev, meanwhile, is starting to look like he could become one of the league’s elite goal scorers — in due time.
Their 5-on-5 play has been exceptional, with both xGF% and xGA/60 ranking in the top 10, and their special teams have performed at a consistently high level.
The big concern for me with the Knights is goaltending.
With Hill out and Carter Hart not eligible to play until December 1, they have nowhere else to turn but Akira Schmid and Carl Lindbom.
Schmid, as talented as he is, remains a risky option. When he’s on, he’s tremendously skilled; when he’s not, he’s a sieve.
Despite a 6-1-1 record and a .908 SV%, he’s posting a -1.2 GSAx — which suggests that regression could be right around the corner.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Prediction
These teams faced off back on October 26th, when Tampa was in the midst of its five-game winning streak.
The Lightning came out on top 2-1 in overtime, a result that makes sense given how well both clubs protect their own nets.
Overall, this is a pretty evenly matched game, and the disadvantage Vegas has in goal is offset by how strong its blue line has been.
Currently, the Knights are listed as moneyline favorites at -125, which represents solid value.
Adding to that, Bet Labs’ “Vegas Flu” model suggests the Lightning — finishing a three-game West Coast trip — could enter this one fatigued.
At this price, I’m comfortable backing Vegas to get it done.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML
