The Vegas Golden Knights (36-26-17) and Colorado Avalanche (52-16-10) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Avalanche are priced at +198 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-142o / +116u). The Avalanche are a -128 favorite to win outright, while the Golden Knights are +106 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 5.5 -142o / 116u | +106 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +198 | 5.5 -142o / 116u | -128 |
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+198), Golden Knights +1.5 (-250)
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 5.5 (-142o / +116u)
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Golden Knights +106, Avalanche -128
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Preview
Vegas Golden Knights
Based on the portion of the schedule in which he was hired, and the fact that Vegas already appeared to be an obvious candidate for positive regression, head coach John Tortorella was placed into a spot where the "new coach bounce" was extremely likely to come to fruition.
Across the entirety of the season, Vegas ranks fifth in expected goal share and has allowed only 24.09 shots per 60. While it has allowed very few shots, it certainly does not appear to be a team that allows full-fledged breakdowns or notably dangerous transitions in transition either.
So in many regards, Tortorella inherited a good situation, given that all of the underlying metrics suggested Vegas was already due to improve. A new voice has seemingly proven beneficial, though, and it has been reported that Cassidy had more-or-less lost the room down the stretch.
Over the last 10 games, the Knights hold a 58.69% expected goal share and have allowed only 2.70 xGA/60. Under Tortorella, they hold a 62.73% expected goal share and have generated 4.03 xGF/60, and hold a record of 4-0-1.
They have gotten some respectable goaltending of late, and if that is to continue, they will automatically become a legitimately tough out in the postseason despite how much of an afterthought they have become in the minds of mainstream NHL media.
Carter Hart has played to a .923 save percentage and a 1.67 GAA across his last three starts. It’s a tiny sample size, and he’s faced a soft schedule, but it is still a massive storyline for the Knights nonetheless.
Colorado Avalanche
This is, on paper, a meaningless game for the Avalanche, who have clinched the Presidents' Trophy, but they will obviously attempt to try to keep good habits in place during their remaining three matchups.
Since January 1st, the Avalanche have ranked 12th in points percentage with a record of 22-14-3. They have allowed 2.77 goals against per game in that span, and 3.37 xGA/60. After being the clear-cut best team in the league both analytically and where it counted in the first half of the season, their level of play undoubtedly tailed off quite significantly.
But it does seem fair to speculate that much of the Avs' modest second half came down to a level of complacency after essentially rendering the middle portion of the year meaningless in front-running so far ahead of the pack.
When at their best, as we saw in an important potential playoff preview, the Dallas Stars and Colorado do still seem to be rightfully priced as the team to beat.
For the vast majority of this season, the Avs' power play unit has been its clearest weakness and, in general, looked to be one way they might bow out in the postseason, given the way things tend to tighten up. Recently, the top unit has been much more effective since flipping Martin Necas's and Nathan MacKinnon's roles, as well as because of the addition of Nazem Kadri prior to his recent injury.
Kadri and Cale Makar are both expected to remain sidelined for this matchup, while more absences may emerge, as anyone dealing with any sort of nagging ailment will surely be instructed to play it safe with how the Avs are situated.
Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +20.2 GSAx rating and a .918 save percentage this season.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Prediction
There are two key reasons why the Knights look to be a worthy underdog bet here at +115, although in general, Colorado has seemingly started to trend back into more dominant form down the stretch.
The first factor is obvious in that recently Vegas has looked fairly dominant in all areas of the ice and has carried the play at a greater level than any other team in the league during Tortorella's tenure. A soft schedule has helped with that, but in general, the Knights' roster still looks quite strong, and as long as they continue receiving respectable play in goal, they appear to be quietly formidable.
Given the way Vegas has played of late, I already do not think we are necessarily reaching to believe +115 is not a bad number with Makar and Kadri sidelined. But on top of that, Colorado's level of urgency might be hit-or-miss in this spot, while it's still possible that more skaters will end up sitting.
So with those thoughts in mind, Vegas looks to be worth a bet at +115.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights +115 (FanDuel, Play to +110)
