The Washington Capitals (25-21-7) and Seattle Kraken (23-19-9) will face off Tuesday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EST at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Wash. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Capitals are priced at +175 to cover the puck line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (O -110/U -110). The Capitals priced at -140 to win outright, while the Kraken are priced at +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Capitals vs. Kraken predictions and NHL picks.
Capitals vs. Kraken Odds, Pick
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 5.5 -125o / +105u | -140 |
| Kraken Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 5.5 -125o / +105u | +120 |
- Capitals vs. Kraken Spread: Capitals -1.5 (+175), Kraken +1.5 (-210)
- Capitals vs. Kraken Over/Under: 6 (O -110 /U -110)
- Capitals vs. Kraken Moneyline: Capitals -140, Kraken +120
Capitals vs. Kraken Preview
Washington Capitals
Capitals GM Chris Patrick is reportedly pressing to acquire an impact forward, but as seems logical, he is interested in a younger piece who will be part of the team’s core moving forward and not a pure rental. Washington is just 3-6-1 over its last ten games and sits four points out of a playoff spot, making this softer matchup a critical opportunity to grab two points.
Injuries have played a role in the Capitals’ recent drop-off relative to earlier in the season and compared to their 111-point 2024-25 campaign. Washington has recently been without top forward Tom Wilson, as well as Aliaksei Protas, Justin Sourdif and Ryan Leonard. Pierre-Luc Dubois has missed the majority of the season but skated in a regular sweater at Monday’s practice.
Wilson led all Capitals skaters in expected goals above replacement last season, while Protas ranked second and Dubois ranked third. Alex Ovechkin is obviously the biggest name up front and Dylan Strome has produced effectively, but Wilson, Protas and Dubois have provided greater overall impact due to their strong two-way play at even strength.
It isn’t entirely unrealistic to believe the Capitals could make a push for a playoff spot now that they’re closer to full health. They are currently tied for the fifth-best goal differential in the NHL and hold an 0-5 record in shootout decisions. Both figures suggest Washington is better than its record indicates.
The Capitals’ 11th-ranked expected goal share at even strength over the last ten games is also encouraging. Their power play has been a train wreck for much of the season, but it has been more respectable when Leonard has been healthy and skating on the top unit, which should again be the case in Tuesday’s matchup.
With backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren starting Saturday against the Edmonton Oilers, it seems safe to assume Logan Thompson will get the nod here. Thompson owns a +18.2 GSAx rating and a .914 save percentage across 37 appearances this season.
Seattle Kraken
It’s hard to believe the Kraken would be in playoff contention if they were playing in the Eastern Conference rather than the thin Pacific Division. Even while competing in the NHL’s softest division, Seattle holds a -11 goal differential and a points percentage of .539.
The Kraken are 10-5-1 against Pacific Division opponents but just 7-8-7 versus Eastern Conference teams. While some credit is due for handling key divisional matchups, it’s easy to argue Seattle wouldn’t be sniffing the playoffs in the East.
Seattle’s underlying metrics also suggest it has overachieved to reach a 23-19-9 record. The Kraken rank second-worst in expected goal share this season and have generated just 24.56 shots per 60 minutes. In January, they sit 24th in expected goal share and have allowed 3.66 xGA/60.
While there are always nuances that analytics don’t fully capture, both the eye test and basic logic point to a roster lacking high-end offensive talent, paired with a fairly average goaltending tandem based on recent seasons. For those reasons, Seattle doesn’t profile as a team likely to outperform its modest underlying numbers.
Joey Daccord is expected to start in goal and carries a .901 save percentage with a -0.0 GSAx rating across 30 appearances this season. Philipp Grubauer has technically outperformed Daccord and could also get the nod, but he’s come back to earth recently with a .895 save percentage over his last five starts. Either way, the goaltending decision doesn’t meaningfully impact my position on this game.
Capitals vs. Kraken Prediction
Though the Capitals have been fighting through a tougher stretch of play of late, when healthy they still appear to be a significantly better side than the Kraken, as both their actual goal differential and underlying metrics suggest. Washington will still be without Pierre-Luc Dubois and potentially Rasmus Sandin — who has been very good — in this matchup, but the Capitals should still offer a more complete roster than what we’ve seen recently.
The Kraken, meanwhile, display many of the characteristics of an overachieving team, particularly when considering that most of their success has come within the ultra-soft Pacific Division.
Oddsmakers appear somewhat aware of Seattle’s fragility, as the Kraken are listed as home underdogs in this matchup. Even so, I believe the Capitals deserve to be larger favorites than their current price of -140, creating value in backing Washington to secure two much-needed points.
Pick: Washington Capitals Moneyline
