The 49ers visit the Seahawks for the second NFL Divisional Round game on Saturday, Jan. 17. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
For our 49ers vs Seahawks anytime touchdown picks, we are targeting Zach Charbonnet and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Continue below for my 49ers vs Seahawks anytime touchdown preview for Saturday night's Divisional Round game.
49ers vs Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Props
- Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+100; bet365)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (-105; bet365)
49ers vs Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Picks
Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+100)
By Chris Raybon
Zach Charbonnet started the year as the Seahawks' goal-line running back before Kenneth Walker started to get more involved. That role, however, has flipped back to Charbonnet in a big way in the last three games.
If you consider expected touchdowns, which looks at where you are in the field when you're getting your carries or your targets, Charbonnet has 10 times as many expected touchdowns as Walker over the last three games alone.
Thus, I think Charbonnet is still a valuable pick even at -105. In the last three games, he's had four rushing touchdowns and four overall, while Walker has one. Looking at expected touchdowns, it could be a bigger split than that in favor of Charbonnet.
The Seahawks will be able to run the ball against the 49ers, who tend not to stack the box. For some reason, they've always prioritized just limiting explosive plays, sitting back regardless of what's going on with their defense and their linebackers. The 49ers have had a very low stack box rate on the year.
Give me Charbonnet to get into the end zone for what would be his fourth straight game.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (-105)
By Sean Koerner
I'm going to go pretty chalky here and go with my guy Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had a true breakout campaign in his third year in the NFL.
Sam Darnold targeted Smith-Njigba a ridiculous 33% of the time this season. Additionally, if you break down how Darnold targets him when he's under pressure versus when there's a clean pocket, we see that Darnold targeted Smith-Njigba 18% of the time under pressure. When he had a clean pocket, that went all the way up to 40%, which is insane.
Meanwhile, the 49ers, ever since they lost Nick Bosa back in Week 3, have had the second-lowest pressure rate. I think Darnold should have a fairly clean pocket in this game, and we've seen Smith-Njigba get a target rate that's nearly two times higher when Darnold has a clean pocket.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Editor's Note: An anytime touchdown parlay is not a formal recommendation. These touchdown picks have value as straight bets.
