Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2451 Posts
Sean Koerner
2451 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.1K
Followers
452.2K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
McLean’s superpower through his first two MLB seasons has been generating called strikes. It’s one of the least sticky pitcher skills year to year, yet he’s managed to consistently tie hitters up. After posting an elite 59.5% zone swing rate as a rookie, hitters are still swinging at just 59.5% of pitches in the zone this year (league average is typically 66-67%). His stuff and pitch mix are excellent, so he has the arsenal to keep freezing hitters, but a lot of his other underlying metrics are much closer to league average. If hitters start attacking more strikes, his K rate takes a significant hit. We’ve already started to see that happen. Over his first 7 starts, opponents swung at just 58% of pitches in the zone. Over his last 7 starts, that’s jumped to 62%, and his strikeout rate has fallen accordingly. I think that’s closer to his true talent level than what we saw earlier in the season. The Reds rank 7th-lowest in zone swing rate on the season, but today’s projected lineup looks a bit more aggressive than their team numbers suggest. Part of that is rookie Edwin Arroyo leading off. It’s obviously a tiny sample with only 39 plate appearances, but he’s swung at an absurd 84% of strikes so far. That’s exactly the type of approach that can neutralize one of McLean’s biggest strengths and hopefully set the tone for the rest of the lineup. I still expect McLean to rack up a handful of strikeouts because his ability to steal called strikes is very real. But 6.5 is exposing his most likely outcome range here. I have him landing in the 5-6 K bucket most often and staying under 6.5 around 62% of the time.
126
16
Shane is continuing his comeback season after missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and then 2025 with a nerve issue in his triceps. While he hasn’t fully regained the elite strikeout upside he had pre-injury, he’s still been very effective overall and owns a solid 24.6% K rate through 13 starts. The problem is his recent results haven’t really matched the underlying metrics, making him a bit of a sell-high candidate right now. While his actual K rate over his last 3 starts sits at 24.6%, my adjusted K rate has him at just 17.4% over that span. Part of that is schedule-driven. My adjusted K rate accounts for opponent strength, and McClanahan has benefited from a very favorable run of lineups recently, facing the Angels and Orioles in 4 of his last 5 starts. Both rank among the four highest strikeout-rate teams in baseball, so he’s been getting a significant boost from the opponents he’s faced. The bigger concern is that hitters have suddenly started making a lot more contact when he throws strikes. His zone contact rate has jumped to 89% over his last 3 starts after sitting at 81% over his previous 10. That’s one of the cleaner, more predictive strikeout indicators because it strips away a lot of the noise tied to chase rates and sequencing. When hitters are consistently making contact in the zone, strikeout upside naturally starts to disappear. Now he draws one of the toughest lineups in baseball to strike out. The Dodgers become even more difficult with Ohtani pitching instead of hitting today, and the lineup construction works against Shane as well. LA has tucked its two best strikeout victims into the 8-9 spots, making it much harder for him to rack up Ks before reaching his likely stopping point. I have his most likely final batter faced occurring around the 4-5 hitters’ third trip through the order, meaning there’s a good chance he doesn’t even see those bottom-of-the-order bats a third time. I’m projecting this closer to -165 to stay under 4.5 strikeouts.
144
13
Pending
With Sabrina back in action, Johannes’ playing time takes a hit. While she’s been an excellent 3-point shooter throughout her career, she’s unlikely to maintain the 43% clip she’s shooting from deep so far this season. This is also a tougher matchup for her specifically. The Sky have allowed the 3rd-fewest made 3-pointer rate in the league, and Johannes’ scoring profile is heavily dependent on shots from beyond the arc. Realistically, she probably needs 3+ made threes to clear this number, and while that’s certainly possible, I think a more likely outcome is something like 2 made threes and 6 points. That still leaves some room for her to add a bucket or a couple free throws and finish with 8 while the under cashes. I have her projected closer to 7.0 points with around a 62% chance to stay under 8.5. I’d still lean under at 7.5 if it gets there, although that number does expose you a bit more if she happens to knock down a couple threes and add a basket in her limited minutes.
53
13
G.Jaquez u3.5 Rebs-106
NY
NY Team Abbreviation@CHI Team Abbreviation
CHI
0.53u
06/18 12:00 AM
This grades out as the toughest rebounding matchup possible for Gabrielle (don’t call her Gabby lol) in my model. She gets most of her rebounds on misses at the rim and long 2-point misses, and the Liberty provide by far the fewest misses in both of those areas. It’s simply a bad opportunity environment for the types of rebounds she relies on. I’m projecting her closer to 3.1 rebounds with around a 61% chance to stay under 3.5.
64
11
3-WAY PARLAY+455
0.15u
M.Johannes u8.5 Pts-125
NY
NY Team Abbreviation@CHI Team Abbreviation
CHI
06/18 12:00 AM
47
10
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday2-2-050%
0.14u
Last 7 Days15-7-068%
4.32u
Last 30 Days47-42-351%
4.05u
All Time2238-1839-3854%
242.80u
Top Leagues
NFL1225-970-2055%
141.31u
MLB362-321-752%
41.68u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA177-138-455%
24.74u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
Golf8-14-036%
0.77u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.