2020 Missouri Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden a Heavy Favorite to Win
Photo credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders is a longshot to win the 2020 Missouri Democratic Primary on Tuesday -- his +700 odds imply only a 11.3% probability of winning.
- It's Joe Biden who is favored to win the most delegates in Missouri with -3333 betting odds that translate to a 87.8% implied probability.
- Missouri is one of six states voting in primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, March 10.
The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six more states casting their votes on Tuesday: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.
There are 352 delegates up for grabs between the six states, or 8.8% of the 3,979 total. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. So, for example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Missouri to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Coming off a bevy of Super Tuesday wins, former vice president Biden leads the field in overall delegates (664) as well as the popular vote.
Candidates will compete for 68 total delegates in Missouri, which makes up about 1.7% of the overall total. Biden is the heavy favorite to secure a majority of Missouri’s delegates according to European sportsbook Betfair, which gives him -3333 odds to win — that means you’d have to bet $3,333 to win $100 with a Biden victory. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders sits all the way back at +700 odds, which give him only a 11.3% vig-free implied probability of winning.
Biden’s odds imply a juice-free probability of 87.8%, chances that FiveThirtyEight’s model supports: They give Biden a 94% chance to win the most delegates in the state, forecasting him to win an average of 41 of the 68 possible.
You’ll find the full Missouri primary odds via Betfair below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Missouri Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -3333 means that if you bet $3,333 on Joe Biden, you’d profit $100 if he wins. And +700 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $700.
- Joe Biden: -3333, 87.8% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +700, 11.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability