Premier League Week 7 Betting: Will Draws Continue to Thrive?
Reuters photo. Pictured: Tottenham goalie Hugo Lloris makes a save against Brighton in 2017
- Premier League Week 7 is highlighted by a marquee matchup between Liverpool and Chelsea on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET (NBC).
- Draws finally made a comeback in Week 6, going 4-6 for +5.31 units, and it looks like that trend could continue into this weekend.
- After analyzing the betting market for every match, I've picked out three value plays to make including Tottenham-Huddersfield.
Big underdogs still haven’t barked in the Premier League this season as teams closing +500 or higher have gone 0-32. That means if you’ve been betting $100 on every sizable dog this season, you’re down $3,200 so far. That’s a terrible strategy anyways, but it just proves how favorites have cleaned up this year.
Here’s a look at updated season trends along with a preview and picks for Week 7.
2018-19 Season Trends
Draws are finally making a comeback after going 4-6 for + 5.31 units in Week 6. Will we see more of that in Week 7?
By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out three value plays to make for this weekend.
2018-19 Season Record: 7-15-1 (-3.57 units)
Tottenham at Huddersfield (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, CNBC)
- Tottenham Odds: -204
- Huddersfield Odds: +686
- Draw Odds: +344
- Over/Under: 2.5 (o-115)
Huddersfield are stuck at the bottom of the Premier League table with just two points and a -11 goal differential, and things just keep getting tougher on Saturday when Spurs come to town.
Tottenham held on for a 2-1 win over Brighton in their last match, snapping a mini two-match losing streak in all competitions (at Inter Milan, vs. Liverpool). On paper, they look like an easy winner this weekend, but I’m more intrigued by the total.
Totals seem to be underpriced when it comes to big home underdogs (+350 or higher), and that’s the case between Huddersfield and Tottenham. Overs have hit at a 61.7% rate and 19.5% ROI, likely due to the home side feeling like they have a chance to win the game.
This causes games to be more wide-open and offensive than normal, and we should see plenty of scoring chances from both sides. At a price of just -115, there’s tremendous value on the over 2.5.
The Bet: Over 2.5 (-110)
Burnley at Cardiff City (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports)
- Burnley Odds: +202
- Cardiff Odds: +173
- Draw Odds: +211
- Over/Under: 2 (o-115)
Burnley got a much-needed victory last weekend, beating Bournemouth easily, 4-0, to pull themselves out of the EPL basement.
Cardiff City weren’t as fortunate, losing to Manchester City, 5-0, in a game they were never in. Their poor start to the season may be a bit deceiving, though, as they’ve now lost to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City in consecutive games. No one really expected them to get any points from those matches.
Luckily, the Bluebirds get to play another home match this weekend against much easier competition and a chance to take all three points.
However, this game has all the components of ending in a draw: tight moneylines, a low total, and lopsided betting action.
According to our data in Bet Labs, draws have performed incredibly well when the total closes at 2 goals. Historically, draws have a nearly 40% ROI in these scenarios, and there’s no reason to shy away this weekend.
This is a perfect match to take the draw and hope for a 0-0 or 1-1 finish.
The Bet: Draw +211
(Note: The same betting logic can be applied for the Draw in Newcastle-Leicester City match).
Biggest Line Moves
The biggest line moves since opening are Wolves, Everton, and the Watford-Arsenal Draw.
Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here.
Most Lopsided Betting %
Although Manchester United and Burnley are lopsided bets by the public, odds have actually moved away from both clubs. That indicates that sportsbooks aren’t worried about unbalanced action right now, and that Manchester United and Burnley are “square” or “public” plays at their current prices.
As for Wolves, it appears that early public and sharp money has come in on the home side, causing the line to shift. Many are expecting the newly-promoted club to finally finish scoring chances this weekend, and I tend to agree with them.
- Newcastle-Leicester City Draw (+228)
- Cardiff-Burnley Draw (+211)
- Huddersfield-Tottenham Over 2.5 (-115)