AC Milan vs PSG Prediction | Tuesday Champions League Betting Picks
Christian Liewig/Getty. Pictured: Theo Hernandez and Kylian Mbappe.
AC Milan vs PSG Odds
| AC Milan Odds | +200 |
| PSG Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Three matches into the Group of Death in the Champions League and AC Milan have yet to score a goal. The Rossoneri find themselves dead last in the group after two goalless draws with Newcastle and Dortmund, followed by a 3-0 defeat in Paris in the reverse fixture two weeks ago. Milan are now in a desperation home spot against PSG, needing goals and a positive result if they want any chance of reaching the round of 16 of the Champions League.
PSG are a road favorite in Milan on Tuesday and the market has moved toward them beyond just the flip of home field as the rematch nears.
They kept 61% of the possession in the home match two weeks ago, yet created just 13 total shots and 1.3 xG. Thanks to excellent finishing from Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembele, the result was never really in doubt once Mbappé gave PSG the lead in the 32nd minute. The French side completed 85.1% of its passes, highlighting just how ineffective and lackluster Milan's attempts to press were in the match.
That's the inherent problem with Milan in this matchup. The Italian side isn't really built to take chances out of possession to press and make PSG uncomfortable on the ball, and the result is a lot of stale PSG possession. Even though the game went over the total in the first meeting, the market is lined very similarly for the rematch and the total is a bit high on Tuesday.
Here is my AC Milan vs PSG prediction in the latest installment of Tuesday Champions League betting picks.
AC Milan
Milan have created less than 1 xG in four of their last five matches. The Rossoneri are starting to see decline in the shot quality and chance creation numbers from the auxiliary attackers outside of superstar Rafael Leão. Olivier Giroud has 2.2 non-penalty expected goals in 7.4 90s in Serie A. His NPxG per 90 rate has dropped from consistently above 0.4 per 90 to 0.28 this season. Giroud is averaging 2.1 shots per 90 too. He has six goals and three assists this season, an excellent return, but the underlying decline is evident once you strip out the penalties.
Christian Pulisic has scored four league goals too, but he's also managed 14 total shots in eight matches. They've gotten considerably more production from Noah Okafor when he's played centrally, but Stefano Pioli is expected to stick with Giroud as the striker up top once again. Even on Saturday against Udinese, Pioli opted to start Luka Jović up top alongside Giroud. Jovic didn't attempt a shot in the opening 45 minutes and was yanked at half time with just 14 touches of the ball. Okafor came on at half and also didn't attempt a shot.
Almost all of the Milan ball progression and chance creation runs through Leão. He attempted four shots on Saturday and had four successful take-ons. Leao also had four shots and three take-0ns against PSG, but Achraf Hakimi's athleticism and defensive ability kept Leão from consistently breaking down the PSG defense.
Milan probably have to take a few more chances in possession to try to get on the board in this matchup, but PSG are so passive and conservative in possession that they have a way of grinding the game to a halt.
PSG
Newcastle showcased an effective formula to press PSG's backline and midfield into mistakes and then turn those high turnovers into chances. Nice also replicated this in Ligue 1, beating PSG in Paris, 3-2, in September. Even though the Magpies executed their plan in attack really well and scored four goals, the result was still just 0.9 xG against this PSG defense.
Since the loss to Nice in the league, Luis Enrique has completely shut down opposition attacks. PSG have conceded more than 1 xG in one match (at Brest) in the last nine contests. That included shutting down Dortmund, Milan, Marseille and Rennes. Enrique hasn't improved their attacking output — that would be hard after losing Lionel Messi and Neymar. But he has made them better defensively and the market is still catching up to this.
PSG's possession numbers in Ligue 1 tell the story of improved field tilt, more possession and longer pass sequences.
2021-22: 63% possession
2022-23: 60% possession
2023-24: 69% possession
Gone are the days of PSG sitting off opponents and hitting in transition. If you were to criticize Enrique's tactics, it would be that they don't create enough chances because they obsess over possession. That's what happened in the first leg between these two sides, PSG were just extremely efficient at taking those limited opportunities.
AC Milan vs. PSG
Prediction
Milan have to show more initiative and take more chances given their situation in this group, but I'm not convinced this total should sit above 2.5. Even with their full complement of attacking options available, Milan's inability to win the ball high off PSG because of their lack of a real press means that PSG's possession control shouldn't be too shaken up.
There were just 1.9 xG created in the first leg between these two clubs and yet the total is lined higher for the second meeting. I bet under 2.5 at +114 in the first matchup two weeks ago and would bet under 2.5 at anything plus money in the rematch in Italy.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+110)
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