Arsenal vs West Ham Odds, Prediction | Thursday Premier League Picks

Thursday, Dec. 28

3:15 p.m. ET

Peacock

Arsenal Odds	-275
West Ham Odds	+475
Draw	+650
Over / Under	2.5 -188 / +140

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal managed to get a point at Liverpool to maintain their spot at the top of the Premier League table headed into Christmas. Liverpool won at Burnley on Boxing Day to temporarily reclaim the top spot in the league, but the Gunners will go back to pole position with a win at home against London rivals West Ham on Thursday.

The Gunners are heavy -300 moneyline favorites to take all three points in this match at home, where they are unbeaten in nine PL fixtures with seven wins and two draws. They've conceded just 6.2 xGA in nine matches at The Emirates and it's hard to see West Ham sustaining any real pressure on the Arsenal goal here.

West Ham have shown real quality in their attack through Jarrod Bowen and Mohamed Kudus in recent weeks, but they'll struggle to generate chances here and the value is on a low scoring affair.

Read on for my Arsenal vs West Ham prediction.

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Arsenal's attack has taken a step back in underlying production and goals across the board, and it remains their biggest obstacle in winning a league title this season. The Gunners' leading goal scorer through 18 matches is a tie between Bukayo Saka and Eddie Nketiah with five goals each. It's hard to win the league without at least one elite goal scorer and the Gunners' lack of a true elite star puts a limit on their attacking explosiveness.

Nothing has come easy for the Gunners in attack this year. The numbers have ticked up a bit since Gabriel Jesus returned from injury, but Arsenal are just 10th in xG per 90 since the season began. Even though Arsenal are top of the league in field tilt and extremely hard to play through, they don't turn high turnovers into big chances often at all.

The Gunners will probably create more chances going forward as the season progresses, but the market is overvaluing their attack based on output produced this year.

As much as Arsenal have struggled to consistently overwhelm inferior opponents with chances, the Gunners have been arguably the best defense in all of Europe's top five leagues through 18 matches. The addition of Declan Rice, the health of William Saliba and Gabriel as center backs has given Arsenal an elite defensive spine.

The Gunners are second in shots allowed, first in xG and big scoring chances conceded. No team has allowed fewer box entries, box touches, progressive passes or dribbles. The forward line contributes a ton defensively and they are the only team to hold Liverpool only 1.5 xG at Anfield this season.

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West Ham's defense is starting to trend up once again in recent weeks. The early season numbers were alarming as West Ham dropped as low as 17th in xGA per 90. It was clear that they were struggling to overcome the loss of Rice in the heart of their defensive midfield. The Hammers won't reach those defensive heights of past years again, but Edson Alvarez has helped improve their ball winning a bit in the last handful of matches.

The Hammers had the embarrassing loss against Fulham where the Hammers conceded five. Even with that outlier, they are up to sixth in xG allowed since November began. The early season data looks like a blip in what is otherwise a passive defense that is effective at denying big scoring chances.

West Ham don't do anything special from a tactical perspective defensively, but they consistently clog up the middle of the pitch and have numbers behind the ball. With a plus shot stopper in Alphonse Areola, it will not be easy for Arsenal to break them down and create big scoring chances. The Hammers aren't going to commit many high turnovers because they play so direct in possession too.

David Moyes' side relies on the individual brilliance of Lucas Paqueta, Kudus and Bowen to propel the attack. All three are in excellent form right now, but it's come against some of the worst defensive structured units in the league. Against a top defense, West Ham have looked quite pedestrian in attack overall.

When you compare Arsenal's numbers in the Premier League to the same corresponding fixtures last season, the defense has taken a notable step forward and the attack a step back. In a league that has seen a huge spike in goal scoring and lots of totals going over the posted total, Arsenal have zagged and Mikel Arteta has prioritized control and defensive possession.

The Gunners were dragged into a chaotic match at Anfield last week and Arteta will expect more control at home against a passive West Ham. With the Hammers not getting many set pieces because of Arsenal's control, this total is too high at a flat 3.

Pick: Under 3 (-106)