EPL Prop Bets: Finding Value in Week 27 Matches
Nicholas Frisardi (Wikimedia Commons)
The North London Derby takes center stage on a packed weekend of Premier League soccer. Here’s our pick of the props as we look forward to a full slate of EPL action.
Tottenham vs. Arsenal
7:30 a.m. ET
One of the biggest games of the year goes down at Wembley Stadium as Arsenal arrives to take on Tottenham in the latest installment of the North London Derby.
Arsenal took the spoils earlier in the season, with Shkodran Mustafi and Alexis Sanchez scoring in a 2-0 home win, but I’m looking at Tottenham’s superb home form to give them the edge this time around.
Tottenham’s Harry Kane is the clear man to follow this weekend in the goal-scorer markets. The Spurs’ hitman drew a blank when the two sides met earlier this season, but he scored in each of the previous FIVE EPL games between the pair.
He’s -105 to score at any time. but with the England striker scoring two or more in a game on 12 occasions this season (compared to just eight games where he’s scored once), the +320 on him scoring twice or better looks like value.
PROP PICK: Harry Kane to score two or more @ +320 (William Hill)
Everton vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
Everton was hammered by Arsenal last weekend, prompting manager Sam Allardyce to label his side’s performance “pathetic.” Expect a more defensively solid performance on Saturday when they face Crystal Palace.
Everton has the seventh-best home record in the EPL, and they should pick up the W this weekend. Theo Walcott netted twice in his home debut for the Toffees, and he’s +200 to add another on Saturday.
PROP PICK: Theo Walcott to score at any time @ +200 (William Hill)
Stoke City vs. Brighton
Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
Both Stoke and Brighton are experiencing worryingly bad form at a crucial stage of the season, but Brighton has one notable weapon. Striker Glenn Murray has netted in each of his last three games (two in the EPL and one in the FA Cup). They’ll look to him to continue that run this weekend.
PROP PICK: Glenn Murray to score first OR last @ +320 (William Hill)
Swansea vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
Brothers reunite for Swansea this weekend, as Andre Ayew looks set to make his first appearance following his re-signing by the Swans, where he may well take the field alongside his brother, Jordan.
Jordan is a +200 shot to score at any time, while his older brother and returning hero Andre is +220. We’re going with the latter, as the club record signing looks to justify the $25 million-plus the club paid out to bring him back.
PROP PICK: Andre Ayew to score at any time @ +220 (William Hill)
West Ham vs. Watford
Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
In a game that’s likely to be a scrappy affair between two inconsistent sides, this one’s a case of picking a player who’s in form — despite his team’s struggles.
Step forward Marko Arnautovic. The Australian forward has scored in four of his last six EPL games, netting five times in during that stretch.
PROP PICK: Marko Arnautovic to score at any time @ +180
Manchester City vs. Leicester
Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
The juggernaut that is Manchester City continues to roll on toward the Premier League title, and another win this weekend seems likely against a Leicester side that has picked up only three wins away from home this season.
However, the Foxes do have the best goal-scoring record on the road outside of the Big Six, and Jamie Vardy is the man leading the way. City’s dominance in the EPL means Vardy’s odds to score at any time are inflated. Leicester is unlikely to win, but a bet on Vardy scoring at the Etihad might.
PROP PICK: Jamie Vardy to score at any time +210 (William Hill)
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth
Sunday, 7 a.m. ET
With no wins in eight EPL matches and a five-match EPL losing streak, things are looking bleak for Huddersfield Town ahead of their home clash with in-form Bournemouth on Sunday.
Bournemouth is unbeaten in its last five (three wins, two draws) and should be the pick to take the three points here. Props-wise, Callum Wilson is a +450 shot to open the scoring, and we like those odds.
PROP PICK: Callum Wilson to score at any time @ +450 (William Hill)
Newcastle vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 9:15 a.m. ET
This used to be THE game to watch on TV back in the day, but Newcastle’s fall from grace has meant it’s just another run-of-the-mill match for Manchester United.
The Red Devils will be big favorites to take the W, but in the hunt for value, a cheeky bet on Newcastle’s Matt Ritchie to score at any time might be worth a look. He’s Newcastle’s designated penalty taker and takes a decent free kick, too. He was on the bench as Joselu failed to convert from the spot against Burnley last weekend. Expect him to be back in the team — and back on set-piece duties — this weekend.
PROP PICK: Matt Ritchie to score at any time @ +550 (William Hill)
Southampton vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
There’s a running joke around the EPL that Southampton is Liverpool’s feeder club. Liverpool has signed a succession of Southampton stars in recent years, and they now have a host of former Saints players on their squad.
And while there’s no special available on a former Southampton player scoring against his own club, we’re taking a non-Saint to do the damage and repeat his two-goal haul from the sides’ previous meeting.
Mo Salah is the Premier League’s in-form hitman right now, and he scored twice against Southampton earlier this season. He’s +450 to score two or more, and +2200 to walk away from St Mary’s with a hat trick.
PROP PICK: Mo Salah to score two or more @ +450 (William Hill)
Chelsea vs. West Brom
Monday, 3 p.m. ET
The pressure is on Chelsea boss Antonio Conte after the Blues suffered back-to-back EPL losses to Bournemouth (3-0 at home) and Watford (4-1 away) over the last eight days. The Italian boss will have looked at the fixture list and breathed a sigh of relief when he saw his side has West Brom on Monday night.
West Brom lost their last two, conceding three goals in each game, so Chelsea should be confident that they’ll bounce back. But given their lack of confidence this week, it may well be in a low-scoring match.
PROP PICK: Chelsea to win and Under 2.5 Goals @ +225 (William Hill)
[Photo credit: Nicholas Frisadi (Wikimedia Commons)]