Aston Villa vs Burnley Odds, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
George Wood/Getty. Pictured: Aston Villa and Burnley.
Aston Villa vs Burnley Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -275 |
| Burnley Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Unai Emery and Aston Villa will look to get back to winning ways against Vincent Kompany's Burnley side this weekend at Villa Park. Both sides are coming off tough losses and will look to get a result in this one.
Villa currently sit third in the Premier League, much higher than most people would have expected out of this side. However, they will be disappointed to not be higher after blowing a 2-0 lead to Manchester United in their last match.
Burnley are currently 19th in the Premier League on just 11 points halfway through the season. If they want any chance of survival they will have to pick up some points where they are not supposed to.
Let's get into the details of this claret and blue matchup and how to bet Aston Villa vs Burnley.
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Aston Villa
Aston Villa supporters will be ecstatic to be third in the Premier League on Christmas, but they will be a bit deflated after losing 3-2 at Old Trafford after leading 2-0 at halftime. They were dominant in the first half of that match, and a win would have taken Villa to second in the Premier League, only not being top on goal difference.
The match against Manchester United was Villa's first loss since November 5th after going seven matches unbeaten in the league. They have gotten to this point thanks to Emery's system since he has become Villa manager. They play primarily in some sort of 4-4-2 variation based on who he has at his disposal. Whether that is a 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-1-1, it has transformed Villa in to one of the most versatile sides in the league.
The outlet of Ollie Watkins up front has given them the freedom to pack the midfield a bit more than other teams can because of how efficient Watkins has been. This allows for Emery to play creative players out wide such as Jacob Ramsey, Diaby and Bailey. These players can push forward and give service to the more central players for Villa.
The attacking efficiency of these front players gives Emery the flexibility to play two defensive central midfielders, whether that be Luiz, Dendocker or Kamara. There is such a good balance of attacking and defensive players in this side who have fully bought in to Emery's philosophy and it has payed off.
Burnley
Vincent Kompany has gotten Burnley playing a bit better than the first couple months of the season. However, they are still not picking up enough points to encourage fans that they will be playing in the Premier League next season.
It has been talked about all season how Kompany wants to play a certain way with this Burnley side and simply does not have the players able to perform that way. Kompany wants to play in a similar way to Arsenal and Manchester City, and this has caused him to throw lose points trying to implement his way of playing.
These Burnley players are not capable of maintaining possession, pressing for 90 minutes and playing a high defensive line, yet Kompany stuck with that system for months. Over the past few weeks he has toned it down a bit and reverted to just picking up points by any means necessary. They are playing deeper, playing more long balls and not trying to play out of the back as much as they were, and this has resulted in a few good results.
They have picked up seven points in their last six matches. The issue with this way of playing is that they have needed a bit of luck on their side because they are still not creating many big chances. They have accumulated less than 1 xG in each of their last 5 matches.
Aston Villa vs Burnley
Prediction
This is a good spot for Villa. They are coming off a very disappointing loss with the chance to potentially climb the table even more. There is no value in taking Villa's moneyline in this match unless it being part of a parlay. Therefore, I will be taking Aston Villa -1.5 in this one.
Yes, Burnley have been playing better defensively as of late, but this Villa side has been so good going forward and will be determined to make a statement after their second half defeat against Manchester United.
Pick: Aston Villa -1.5 (-120 or better)
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