Aston Villa vs Sheffield United Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
James Baylis/Getty. Pictured: Leon Bailey.
Aston Villa vs Sheffield United Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -450 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Unai Emery and Aston Villa will be hosting Chris Wilder and his Sheffield United squad in the lone Friday match this week. Both sides need a result in this match for completely different reasons.
Villa currently sit third in the Premier League, just one point behind league leader Arsenal. They have not lost a match in all competitions since November 5th and have only lost five matches all season. A win in this match and they will be top of the table Friday night.
Sheffield United are currently dead last in the Premier League with just two wins and eight points in their 17 matches. They have conceded a league worst 43 goals this season and look to be spiraling straight back to the Championship.
Let's get into how I expect Aston Villa vs Sheffield United and how to bet this match.
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Aston Villa
Aston Villa have been a truly elite side this season, especially at Villa Park. Villa have played eight matches at home this season, winning all eight with a goal difference of +20. Emery's men are the only side in the league to have won every match at home this season and they are scoring an average of over three goals per game at Villa Park. Oh, and in their last two matches at home they have beaten both Manchester City and Arsenal.
There are two main reasons as to why they have been so efficient at home. Their finishing has been unbelievable and Emiliano Martinez has been as good as anyone this season. Villa have over-performed their xG difference by almost four goals, while Martinez has saved just over four goals for Villa. That is an eight-goal swing above the expected for this Villa side and without that it is very unlikely that they would have the chance to go top of the table on Friday.
Another reason that they are where they are is because of how Emery sets up this side. Depending on the opponent, Emery typically sets Villa up in either a 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 or the occasional 3-5-2. Against sides that like to control possession he will pack the midfield a bit more to break up play in the middle of the park. Against sides that are a bit more passive, he will play a 4-4-2 as it allows for a bit more width and firepower up front with Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United have only picked up points four times this season with two wins and two draws. They have given up an average of just over 2.5 goals a game and have only scored 12 goals all season. They have been a serious mess and have looked far and away like the worst side in the league.
They have conceded the most goals from open play, the second-most goals from set-pieces and have the lowest xG from open play and from set-pieces. Simply put, there really is not anything that this Blades side has done well this season. They are deservedly bottom of the league and even the reappointment of Wilder has not seen much of a change.
What Wilder has done in his two weeks in charge is change to four at the back and packed the midfield more than before. He is now playing with two central midfielders, two wide midfielders and a holding midfielder. This holding midfielder has slightly stabilized their defensive abilities as they are able to break up play in the middle of the park. But we have seen it since this change in formation that this side is just extremely vulnerable when it comes to defending.
They played probably their best match of the season against Brentford, only allowing 0.6 xG in their 1-0 win, however, last week against Chelsea they were peppered with chances from the Blues all match, allowing over 3 xG.
Aston Villa vs Sheffield United
Prediction
I would be surprised if Villa do not continue their winning ways at Villa Park in this one. There is really no value on the moneyline or even the spread at -170, and because of this I will be taking Aston Villa to win and pairing that with under 3.5.
This comes out to -105 and is the safest play for this match. Villa have been so elite at home this season and will be looking to continue that with the worst team in the league coming to them in this match. I would even be surprised if Sheffield United score in this match as they will look to be so compact and so passive if they want to get any sort of result.
Pick: Aston Villa ML and Under 3.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
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