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Aston Villa vs. Southampton Odds & Picks: Back the Road Underdogs

Aston Villa vs. Southampton Odds & Picks: Back the Road Underdogs article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Stuart Armstrong

  • The Premier League took last week off but is back on Friday.
  • Southampton is coming off a draw, and Aston Villa has just one win on the season.
  • However, there may be value on the underdog in this one. Brett Pund previews the match and oppers up his best bet below.

Aston Villa vs. Southampton Odds

Aston Villa Odds +105
Southampton +250
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / -105)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After all matches were postponed last weekend, the Premier League is back on Friday, kicking off the slate with Southampton’s trip to Aston Villa.

The hosts picked up a big draw against Manchester City in their last game. However, Aston Villa still has just one win on the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Saints enter the fixture in 12th with victories over Chelsea and Leicester City, coupled with a draw at home against Leeds United.

I have these sides very closely rated and think this is an opportunity for the road underdog to get a result.

Aston Villa

After four losses in the opening five league games, Steven Gerrard’s name was getting talked about as one of the next managers to get sacked.

Villa was able to pick up a surprising point against the champions, but that does not cover up the fact that this has been a poor start to the season.

Through six games, Gerrard’s team is 19th in the English top flight in expected goals per 90 minutes (0.75) and shots per match (9.33), according to fbref.com.

This is also the same side that has failed to pick up a clean sheet through all seven fixtures.

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Southampton

When you look at last season, one big issue for Southampton was the struggles on the road, where the Saints were 17th in points per away game (0.79).

Meanwhile, manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team has already shown signs of improving away from Saint Mary’s Stadium — especially in the 2-1 win over the Foxes.

Southampton has also defended better on the road, allowing just 0.833 expected goals per match. This is a massive upgrade from the 1.842 average given up last season.

Will the Saints be able to keep this up, or will they fall back into their old ways?

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When I look at the odds for this match, all of the betting value is on the visitors. So, my best bet is to back Southampton getting +0.5 at -130 odds at PointsBet.

I wrote about the issues the Saints had on the road last year, but Villa hasn’t been great at home under Gerrard.

Since Gerrard became manager, the Villa only has a +0.8 xGDiff and just three clean sheets in 14 EPL fixtures at Villa Park.

Gerrard’s team has also had issues defending corners and free kicks, which isn’t good against a Southampton side that finished in the top five in goals from set pieces last year.

This match has the look of a low-scoring draw, but I’ll take my chances with the club that has the better defensive structure.

The Pick: Southampton +0.5 (-130)

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