Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich Updated Odds, Picks and Predictions: How to Bet Saturday’s Bundesliga Headliner (June 6)

Bayern Munich at Bayer Leverkusen Odds

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There's no question about this weekend's Bundesliga headliner.

Bayern Munich, well on their way to an eighth consecutive league title, will head to BayArena to take on fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen, who are battling with Borussia Monchengladbach for the fourth and final Champions League spot.

Bayer Leverkusen

Outside of a home loss to Wolfsburg, Die Werkself have been on fire during the second half of the season. Over their past 13 matches, Leverkusen have earned 31 of a possible 39 points, creating 26.32 expected goals in the process. Kai Havertz has been the man in form for Die Werkself, with five goals since the Bundesliga returned. He will without a doubt be a problem for Bayern Munich's defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Matches involving Bayer Leverkusen average 3.44 expected goals, so you can usually count on some fireworks when Peter Bosz's side is in action.

Die Werkself have found a lot of success utilizing a 4-2-3-1 formation, averaging 2.22 xGF per 90 minutes when they line up in that fashion. Leverkusen are a team that tries to outscore you because their high-risk style leaves their defense exposed, as evidenced by their 1.44 xGA per 90 in the 4-2-3-1.

Bayern Munich

The Bavarians have been dominant since the Bundesliga returned to play last month. Bayern Munich have won all four matches and boast a +11 goal differential in that span.

Bayern's run of dominance really goes back to early November when Hans Flick took over for Niko Kovac. Flick has completely revamped Bayern Munich and switching the Bavarians to a 4-2-3-1 has been a stroke of genius. Bayern generates 2.94 xGF and only allows 0.98 xGA per 90 minutes in their preferred lineup.

Based on those numbers its easy to see why 62% of Bayern matches go over 3.5 goals.

Previous Meeting

Leverkusen pulled off the upset in the reverse fixture at the Allianz Arena 2-1 back in November. The expected goals report shows that Bayern Munich should have won the game, and, as you can see from the highlights, Bayern Munich had numerous chances to draw level and potentially win the game.

Analysis

Based on my model, I have the expected goals at:

• Bayer Leverkusen: 1.54 xG
• Bayern Munich: 2.48 xG

Even though my numbers give Bayern Munich a significant edge, I truly believe that red-hot Leverkusen can get a result from this match. That being said, you don't get rich betting against the 28-time Bundesliga champions.

Instead of trying to find an edge on the moneyline, I'll look to the Over/Under. Since my model has the expected goals at 4.02, I'm going to take a shot at the over of 3.5 goals (+102).