Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Prediction | Bundesliga Picks
Ralf Ibing/Getty. Pictured: Felix Nmecha.
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Odds
| Dortmund Odds | +170 |
| Leipzig Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110 / -138 |
Both Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig were the preseason betting favorites to come closest to Bayern in the Bundesliga. The market overrated both clubs preseason, as Leipzig sit fourth and Dortmund fifth through 13 matches. Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart have been the two closest challenges to Bayern at the top of the table and now this match becomes critical for keeping the inside track on the final top four spot.
There's still more than half of the season to be played, but Leipzig's attack has taken a step back and Dortmund's defense has shown major holes to this point in this campaign. Just about every competent attacking team that Dortmund has faced has produced at least 1.5 xG. The Dortmund attack has been mostly fine, but at times inconsistent.
Now at home, the market views Leipzig as the better team and thus has this game lined as a tossup. The side is right in line with where I'd project it, but the total remains a touch high. Dortmund unders are rarely fun bets and watches, but Leipzig's defense remains solid and the attack has a lot to prove here.
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Dortmund
The Dortmund defensive issues are well-documented at this point. They've held up in Europe where Dortmund advanced from the group of death — mostly because teams failed to finish any chances against them. The Schwarzgelben are 11th in non-penalty xG allowed per match and eighth in shots allowed. They rank 12th in box entries and 10th in ball stopping.
Once you get past Dortmund's press, it's extremely easy to get into the penalty area and get quality shots. Dortmund's defense is dead last in final third entry to box entry conversion rate. The lack of ball winning is why Dortmund were uncompetitive with Bayern in their matchup and lost twice to Stuttgart in league and cup in a month.
This is the end of a difficult week for Dortmund overall. They traveled to Leverkusen in a 1-1 league draw on Sunday then lost 2-0 to Stuttgart away in the DFB-Pokal. That means, Dortmund will face the second, third and fourth best team in Germany in the same week. It's a bit of a gauntlet given that PSG waits on Tuesday in the Champions League.
Dortmund are dealing with some injuries right now, as Youssoufa Moukoko will miss this match, as will Julian Ryerson. Felix Nmecha and Sebastien Haller remain out as well. Dortmund have plenty of attacking depth, but this puts a limit on Edin Terzic's ability to change the game with fresh legs and bench subs in the second half.
RB Leipzig
The market has taken a strong position against RB Leipzig for most of the season now. They closed +1.75 at Manchester City in the Champions League even though it was mostly a dead rubber for the Cityzens. They've taken money against them most of this season in the hours leading up to kickoff, yet they've continued to cover spreads and beat the biggest bettors who have moved the market against them. One main reason has been extreme finishing variance in their favor.
They've only scored three goals from 6.7 xG in their last two league matches, so the numbers don't look quite as skewed right now as they did before. Even still, Leipzig have scored 31 goals from roughly 24 xGF. They haven't been forcing nearly as many high turnovers this year (11th), they rank 12th in crosses into the box and the attack has become extremely narrow at times.
Overall, the attack is fourth in xG per 90, so it's not like the sky is falling for Marco Rose's side. It's just not nearly as consistent production. Leipzig are 13th in expected threat in the Bundesliga, so they haven't been able to sustain consistent pressure in the opposition area. Most of their attacks have come on the break through Lois Openda. He's producing 0.65 NPxG per 90 on four shots per 90, which is healthy striker production but built a lot on some very high xG chances in fast break moments.
Leipzig's defense still looks to be quite solid overall. They're conceding about 1 xG per match overall. It's more consistent and stable defensive output overall when you look at the ball progression stats. They've allowed the fewest box entries, third-lowest xT and fewest progressive passes and carries.
They haven't been great at tilting the field on their opponents, but it's not as if teams are consistently in their half.
Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
Prediction
Dortmund's defense is so inconsistent and shaky that the under is quite an ugly wager for this matchup. Leipzig still have some attacking regression coming though, and their totals have been inflated in recent weeks as a result of the attacking finishing at unsustainable rates early in the season.
The total for this game should be closer to three in my view, and I'd bet under 3.5 at -130 or better.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-130)
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