Bournemouth vs Wolves EPL Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks & Prediction
Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolverhampton standout Rúben Neves, right, celebrates a goal with his teammates.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+120 / -145)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Bournemouth sacked manager Scott Parker after three consecutive league defeats to Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool by a combined 16-0 scoreline.
The Cherries, who won at home on opening day of the Premier League season against Aston Villa, now have a chance at points again against a mid-table side Wednesday when Wolverhampton visits the South Coast.
Wolves are still looking for their first win after Newcastle United scored a late equalizer to share the points in their 1-1 draw last time out. Manager Bruno Lage’s side has struggled to create chances and score goals with just two in four matches, so the club will see this as a chance to get right on offense.
Teams often see a bump in performance and results after firing the manager and Bournemouth is in the perfect buy low spot. That was true before Parker was fired. The Cherries suffered a 9-0 loss to Liverpool last Sunday and the market reacted accordingly.
There’s not much nice to say about Bournemouth except that the club did perform well in its only match not against one of the four best teams. Bournemouth’s efforts against the top clubs can’t be thrown out and must be included in the team’s overall aggregates.
However, it probably shouldn’t be weighted quite as heavily for this match, especially when you consider the Bournemouth held Aston Villa to 0.5 xG and less than 1.2 expected threat.
Otherwise, Bournemouth has attempted just 14 shots from open play this season, which is 13 fewer than any other team. Yet, the defense has also run pretty unlucky this year. It has conceded 5.66 xGA from open play in four matches and have let in 10 goals.
The defense is really bad, but it’s not quite as bad as the goal difference and totals would lead you to believe. Teams won’t continue to finish on their defense at this rate going forward.
By The Numbers
- 1.6 — Wolves aren’t much of a threat from set pieces in attack, but Bournemouth’s defense has conceded four goals from this many xGA thus far.
- 1.3 — Every team has created at least three xG this year, except the Cherries at this number through four matches.
Through four matches, Wolves have failed to create more than 1.1 xG in a match despite playing Leeds United, Fulham and Newcastle United in three of the four games. They’ve attempted more shots from outside the box than any other team in the EPL and the average shot distance is 19.5 yards, almost a full yard longer than every other team in the league.
None of this hints that Wolves should really be an even-money road favorite against anyone in the English top flight, even a team as bad as the Cherries have been to this point.
A lot of Wolves’ problems would be solved by a dynamic, young striker to link the play. Wolves did sign a new striker — Sasa Kalajdzic from Stuttgart — but he’s not going to play in this match, nor am I convinced he’s the kind of threat Wolverhampton needs to take the step forward on offense.
By The Numbers
- 5.3 — Wolves have conceded four league goals off this many xGA, which is a sign they’re once again over-performing. Instead of José Sá in goal, it has been poor opponent shooting, which is unlikely to continue.
- 28 — Number of shots attempted from outside the box by Wolves this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Aston Villa closed as a similar moneyline favorite on debut and the club was lined as about the 10th-best team in the league. It’s a sign of how far the market has fallen on Bournemouth that Wolverhampton, a team which entered with the sixth-highest chance of being relegated, is now laying a half goal on the road.
It’s fair to downgrade the Cherries from their uncompetitive defeats, but at a certain point, the downgrade becomes too much . The firing of Parker should galvanize them at home and Wolves’ attack hasn’t produced nearly enough in terms of chances created to warrant being this big of a favorite.
I’d bet Bournemouth getting +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at -140 or better or getting +0.25 at -105 or better as my top picks.
The Pick: Bournemouth +0.5 (-140 or better)