Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction | Saturday Premier League Odds & Picks
David Price/Getty. Pictured: Takehiro Tomiyasu.
Brentford vs Arsenal Odds
| Brentford Odds | +425 |
| Arsenal Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Arsenal were one of two teams in the entire Premier League to win on the road at Brentford last season. The Gunners had one of their most commanding wins of the year in a comfortable 3-0 victory, joining Newcastle as one of two. Given that the Bees beat Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton and Manchester United at home last year, they've proven how difficult their defensive system and quick counterattacking approach can be for the league's top sides.
The Gunners will have a difficult task on Saturday to try to claim all three points once again. Much has changed for Arsenal since the Gunners' opening day defeat at Brentford to begin the 2021-22 season, but this season hasn't gone nearly as smoothly in attack for Mikel Arteta's side.
Arsenal's attacking output is way down this year, and they'll be hoping that the return of Gabriel Jesus and Martin Odegaard to the middle of the pitch will help the Gunners break through earlier in matches and unlock the center of the penalty area more easily. The market has given Arsenal a bump for these returners, but Brentford will still be tough to crack.
Read on for my Brentford vs Arsenal prediction.
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Brentford
Brentford as an underdog against of the biggest clubs in England have been a constantly profitable bet since they joined the Premier League. It all started in their first match when the Bees beat Arsenal 2-0 at home and established their defensive and counterattacking approach.
The Bees are not going to attack with a lot of numbers going forward. While the Bees have shown of late against West Ham and Liverpool that they're willing to get into an up-and-down, wide-open match with their opponent, that will not be the case against Arsenal.
The attack is basically entirely on the shoulders of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa. Neal Maupay has been the bench option, and given his history with Arsenal there's a decent chance you could try to live bet him to be booked if he does come into this match.
Outside of set pieces, Brentford will sit in their 3-5-2 with extra help from the wing backs in defending the wide talent of this Arsenal side. The Bees are underrated in their ability to build-up under pressure without giving away high turnovers and easy big chances for the opponent.
Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus claimed after Brazil's 1-0 loss to Argentina during the international break that scoring goals is not his strong point as a striker. On one hand, this has limited Arsenal's ceiling. Jesus has finished at or below his xG almost every year he's been a forward in the Premier League. He's not a plus finisher overall, but he adds so much value from his passing and dribbling to make this Arsenal attack work.
The Gunners get more finishing quality when Eddie Nketiah plays, but the rest of the attack takes a real step back. Jesus is constantly receiving and passing the ball in dangerous areas, often in the penalty area. He ranks in the top 10 percentile amongst forwards in Europe's top five leagues in passing, dribbling, receiving the ball, assisting others and pressing off the ball and out of possession.
His assist to Gabriel Martinelli for the opening goal against Sevilla in the Champions League on a long pass through the middle is a classic example of Jesus' value. Martin Odegaard is also expected back for Arsenal and he's taken a real step back this season.
His passes into the final third has decreased by more than 30%, while his xA dropped from 0.23 last year to 0.08 this year. The attack has been too reliant on Bukayo Saka and it's just not as good this year.
The Gunners are elite at keeping possession in the opponent’s final third, but their inability to consistently break down low blocks has been a persistent issue for the club this season. Arsenal are third in final third entries and third in box entries, but they rank just eighth in shots per match, ninth in big scoring chances and 12th in non-penalty xG this year.
Brentford vs Arsenal
Prediction
Mikel Arteta is forcing his club to play with extreme control and it has lowered the goal environment in Arsenal matches.
The approach has paid off in the name of historically dominant defensive output. It’s made Arsenal a boring watch for the casual, but they pitched two near shutouts to Sheffield United (0.02 xG) and Sevilla (0.01 xG) and nearly did the same to Burnley (0.3 xG) in the last few matches. Newcastle managed to reach 1 xG, but almost all of it came on the controversial VAR decision from a broken play.
The improved ball winning in midfield and the fully healthy defense has led to sustainably elite output. Brentford are always a danger on set pieces and in transition, but this total is too high given Arsenal’s extreme control approach. The Gunners will have most of the ball and probably take more shots, but they will struggle to get high quality ones.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 or better)
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