Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction | Best Bets Today

Sunday, Dec. 17

9 a.m. ET

Peacock

Brentford Odds	+225
Aston Villa Odds	+110
Draw	+275
Over / Under	2.5  -143/+120

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Aston Villa vaulted itself into the Premier League title race with consecutive wins against both Manchester City and Arsenal. The Villans didn't just win those matches, but kept clean sheets against the two PL title favorites. After a dead rubber away win in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, the Villans return to England for a difficult away fixture at Brentford.

Villa has been elite at home all season long and had no issues dispatching all eight of its opponents. They have a +20 goal difference and their home form is a reason to believe in them. This will be a major challenge away from home against Brentford, even if the Bees are dealing with some injury issues of their own.

Brentford lost on the road to Sheffield United last week, 1-0. The Bees handed Sheffield just their second win of the season and the loss of Bryan Mbeumo to injury leaves them a bit shorthanded in attack. Even still, this is an ultimate sell-high spot on Aston Villa following the two biggest wins of their season.

Here is how I'm betting Brentford vs Aston Villa.

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The Bees without Mbeumo looked terrible at Sheffield United last week, but we’ve seen Brentford look bad as a road favorite then pull an upset as a home underdog so many times since they joined the Premier League two years ago.

Brentford had its second worst showing of the season by expected goals produced, and it came against the league's worst team. The market responded accordingly, and I'd argue too much to just one data point in a long season.

It was also the first game without Mbeumo, so you can expect some learning period in learning how to play without an integral part of their attack. The combination of Neal Maupay and Yoanne Wissa is more than good enough to threaten in behind, and Maupay's skills in possession are the closest to Mbeumo's creative quality.

Brentford's squad depth isn't really built to play multiple matches in the same week, and that's what last week asked them to do. Now the Bees come in as an underdog, their preferred game state. Even though Villa rotated heavily in the Europa Conference League, Brentford does have a significant rest advantage too.

The Bees are expected to have Mathias Jensen back in the lineup, and he's the primary set piece taker. Brentford is seventh in xG per set piece and sixth in non-penalty xG created this year. Villa's entire team is built around possession, not around defending. They are vulnerable on set plays and Brentford could generate a real edge on the dead ball situations in this match. Villa ranks dead last in xG allowed per set piece, which makes Brentford a nightmare matchup.

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You’re hearing a lot of pundits claim that Villa is truly in this title race, which is a clear sign that they’re likely over inflated in the market and at the peak of their value. The time to play against Aston Villa is on the road. At home this season, Villa has a +1.2 xG difference per 90 minutes, which is fourth best in the entire league. 

When the Villans play away from Villa Park, they’ve conceded 14.2 xGA in eight matches. They have a -0.35 xGD per 90 and rank 13th overall. Villa won three straight then got smoked at Liverpool. They had a huge away win at Spurs but were outplayed by xG in the match. Their recent away trip to Bournemouth saw them score late to draw 2-2.

Villa still has real flaws out of possession that get exposed on their travels. Unai Emery has done a remarkable job turning around the club in his image, but they play a high defensive line and don't apply much ball pressure to make up for that. 

They rank 19th in ball recoveries and 14th in passes per defensive action. There will be a ton of space in behind for the Brentford transition attack to run into here. Much like Bournemouth had a ton of success pressing Villa into mistakes, Brentford is quite good at disrupting opposition build-up. As a result, Villa may see a lot of its attacks break down early in the play.

For a price comparison, we saw Aston Villa close +110 at Burnley early in the season and -110 at Bournemouth just two weeks ago. The market keeps moving up Villa higher and higher and the current price isn't close to where I'd make it. Even with adjustments downward for Brentford without Mbeumo, it's a dream number and spot to back the Bees.

I’d bet Brentford both +0.5 and on the ML on a game that shouldn’t be much worse than a pick’em. 

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-150 or better) and Brentford ML (+200 or better)