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Brentford vs. Leeds EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction

Brentford vs. Leeds EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image
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Jon Hobley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Jack Harrison.

Brentford vs. Leeds Odds

Brentford Odds +110
Leeds Odds +230
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Seeking an end to a two-match winless run, Leeds United travels to Brentford for Saturday’s Premier League showdown.

Manager Jesse Marsch and the Peacocks settled for a 1-1 draw with Everton during midweek action, while the Bees’ late goal rescued a point against Crystal Palace. That represents Brentford’s third result in five games after conceding the first goal.

Last season, Leeds earned points in both meetings against its latest opponent, including a 2-1 road victory. Both games also proved quite offensive, with both matches clearing 2.5 goals.

Brentford

Yet again, Brentford finds itself being a night-and-day side depending on the venue it’s playing at this season.

Through two home fixtures, manager Thomas Frank’s side has a +2.3 expected goal differential. Contrarily, the Bees have a -0.2 xGDiff through three road matches, per fbref.com.  Expand the sample to include its 19 home tilts last season and Brentford has a +8.5 xGDiff in its last 21 home contests.

That success has largely come as a result of its defense, which has conceded only 1.06 xG per 90 minutes in its last 21 home EPL fixtures.

By The Numbers

  • 57 — Percentage of the last 21 Brentford home matches in which it earned at least a point.
  • 67 — Percentage of the last 21 Brentford home games in which it has won the xG battle.
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Leeds United

The early returns have proven positive for Leeds, but it has still struggled to establish consistency defensively away from Elland Road.

This season, the Peacocks have conceded at least one xG in both road games, including a 1.9 xGA output in its last match against Brighton & Hove Albion away from home. Expand the sample to include last season’s road defensive outputs and bettors will find Leeds has conceded 1.90 xG/90 minutes away.

The results don’t improve much if you exclude the Big Six either, as in Leeds’ last 15 road matches against such opposition, the club has conceded 1.5 xGA/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

By The Numbers

  • -2 — Big scoring chances differential for Leeds on the road this season.
  • 19th — The Peacocks’ ranking on the road xGA table last season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

I want to respect the results Leeds earned last season against Brentford, but still think the host’s attack has its way.

In the midweek at Crystal Palace, Brentford only scored once but generated five big scoring chances against a stingy defense. Now, it returns home where it has generated 1.53 xG/90 minutes in its last 14 home matches against non-Big Six sides.

Take out the 0.3 xG performance last season when playing virtually the entire match down a man against Newcastle and that figure rises to 1.62 xG/90 for the Bees.

Given Leeds’s road record and the fact it could see some slight negative defensive regression based on its road defensive record (three goals against on four big chances), I like getting involved with Brentford’s team total.

Currently, the number for the Brentford total clearing 1.5 goals is -110, but I’ll back it up to -125 odds as my top pick.

The Pick: Brentford — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110)

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