Brentford vs Luton Town Prediction | Saturday Premier League Picks
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Christian Norgaard.
Brentford vs Luton Town Odds
| Brentford Odds | -223 |
| Luton Town Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 /+107 |
Thomas Frank and his Brentford squad will be hosting Luton Town this Saturday at the Gtech Community Stadium. Brentford will be looking to regain some form after dropping two consecutive matches, while Luton will be looking to win their second straight match.
Brentford currently sit 11th in the table on 16 points through 13 matches. They have been nothing but bang average up to this point in this season, which is all that was expected in the absence of Ivan Toney. They are coming off two consecutive losses to Liverpool and Arsenal and will be desperate to pick up all three points in this match.
Luton have surprisingly been the best of the three promoted sides this season. They sit 17th in the league on nine points, currently four points clear of the relegation zone. They were on the better side of a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace last weekend.
Let’s see how I think Brentford vs Luton Town will play out and how to bet this one.
Brentford
Brentford have had an up-and-down type of season so far. They were unbeaten in their first four matches, lost three of their next four, won their next three and have now lost two straight. This type of form is typically not how this Brentford side has operated over the past few seasons. However, with the loss of David Raya, injuries to Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry and the suspension of Ivan Toney, there is a lot of turnover with this squad who are still trying to figure things out.
They were tactically excellent against Arsenal last week, who are one of the best sides in the world tactically. Despite losing 1-0, there were a lot of positives to take from that match. They put together over 1 xG to an Arsenal side who is averaging just 0.8 xGA/90.
Part of the reason that they are just 11th in the league is because they are underperforming all of their underlying metrics massively. They have racked up the sixth-highest xG tally in the league with 24.1, yet have scored just 19 goals. They have also been sound defensively, conceding just 18.2 xG.
Pretty much everything has gone wrong for this Brentford side in these first 13 matches. They have been among the most unfortunate and unlucky sides this year so the fact that they still sit 11th shows how good Thomas Frank is and the quality that these players possess.
Luton Town
Luton Town have been one pleasant surprises of the league so far. Even though they have only nine points and sit just one spot outside the relegation zone, a lot of their statistics have been somewhat encouraging when you see them at face value.
The Hatters have been poor going forward, but that was expected with the lack of quality that they have in their attacking minded players. They have been decent defensively up to this point. They have conceded just 23 goals and scored 12 so far, similar numbers to the likes of Fulham and Everton.
However, they have been lucky to only concede 23 goals, as they have given up 26.8 xG, the second-highest in the league only to Sheffield United. The difference with this Luton side to teams like Sheffield United and Burnley is that they have what looks to be a very serviceable midfield two of Ross Barkley and Marvelous Nakamba.
These two are now in a rhythm with the consistent game time, and it has changed this squad and how they operate. Nakamba has always been good at breaking up play in the middle of the park, but surprisingly Ross Barkley has been playing as a deep lying midfielder, also helping break up play while being able to help transition them forward. This has proved pivotal against teams like United and Liverpool where they will be able to counter, but Brentford may still be able to progress the ball forward on this Luton side.
Brentford vs Luton Town
Prediction
This Brentford side typically likes to get the ball to the wide areas of the pitch and be able to play a quick brand of attacking football. This could give Luton problems as their fullbacks, Bell and Doughty are not the most defensively gifted defenders.
If Brentford are able to neutralize the defensive capabilities of Luton’s midfield two of Barkley and Nakamba, then I can see them running riot on this Luton side. Therefore, I will be taking Brentford -1 at -140. I see a ton of value on Thomas Frank’s men even at this number.
I also think that Brentford moneyline would be a great leg for anyone who wants to put together a parlay for the matches this weekend.
Pick: Brentford -1 (-140 via DraftKings)
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