Brighton vs. Arsenal Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Dec. 29)

Brighton vs. Arsenal Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Dec. 29) article feature image
Credit:

Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images. Pictured: Neal Maupay

Brighton vs. Arsenal Odds

Brighton Odds +210 [BET NOW]
Arsenal Odds +133 [BET NOW]
Draw +240 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-127) [BET NOW]
Time Tuesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
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Tuesday’s match between Brighton and Arsenal features a pair of bottom-half teams looking to scratch their way back into relevance as we head into 2021.

Brighton’s season has been filled with heartbreaking disappointment and their draw with West Ham on Sunday was a microcosm of what’s transpired for Graham Potter’s Seagulls since the opening week. Despite some strong underlying metrics, Brighton have drawn seven of their first 15 matches and have yet to win a match at home this season.

Arsenal finally got off the schneid with a win over Chelsea on Saturday. That said, the Gunners are still closer to a relegation spot than they are to the top-six. That is frankly unacceptable for a club that has never been relegated from the top flight.

Is this the start of a season-saving run from Arsenal?

Brighton

The Seagulls quite literally may be the most underrated club in all of Europe. It is pretty astounding when you put their expected goals next to their actual results (xG numbers via understat.com):

As you can see there is almost an 11-goal gulf between their actual goal differential and their xGD. Brighton seem like they are overdue for some positive regression, especially at home.

From a chance-creation standpoint, Brighton have absolutely dominated their opponents. Yet, they only have four points to show for it.

The Seagulls own a +7.66 xGD in those seven home fixtures and are allowing only 0.88 xG per match. That’s especially impressive considering Brighton have already hosted Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool.

Arsenal

Problems for Arsenal exist at both ends of the pitch. Going forward, they are desperately struggling to create high-quality chances. The Gunners are averaging only 1.16 expected goals for (xGF) per game, which is in the bottom six of the Premier League. Part of that can be chalked up to the fact that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal’s main goal-scoring threat over the last two seasons, is averaging an abysmal 0.19 xG per 90 minutes.

To make matters worse, Aubameyang has missed the last two matches due to a calf injury and is questionable for this match. Even with the win over Chelsea on Saturday, the Gunners are going to need someone to step up if they are going to salvage this season.

Defensively, Arsenal haven’t been terrible, allowing 1.23 xG per match, but the Gunners will be without two central defenders, Gabriel and David Luiz, and Thomas Partey, their bestdefensive midfielder.

Despite what the results have shown, Brighton have a potent offense that is averaging 1.50 xG per match. The Seagulls may not have the finishers needed to contend for a spot in the top-six, but they create enough chances to give this beleaguered Arsenal defense a lot of issues.

Projections and Pick

I think the wrong club is favored in this match. Brighton have been unlucky all season long and their overall statistical profile is far superior to Arsenal’s. Because of that, my projections suggest that the wrong team is favored in this match.

At some point Brighton’s results will catch up to their chance-creation metrics, so I think they are undervalued in this spot and like a bet on Brighton at +123 on the Draw No Bet line.

Bet: Brighton +123 (Draw No Bet)

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