Brighton vs Brentford Prediction | Wednesday Premier League Picks
Richard Heathcoate/Getty. Pictured: Shandon Baptiste.
Brighton vs Brentford Odds
| Brighton Odds | -110 |
| Brentford Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
The Premier League's first midweek slate of the season continues on Wednesday as Brentford make the trip down to the English south coast to face off against Brighton. The Seagulls lost 3-2 in a thriller at Chelsea in London on Sunday, while Brentford dispatched Luton Town at home on Saturday. The Bees enter this match in better form with three wins in their last five, and this matchup sets up decently well for Thomas Frank's side to get another result.
Brighton and Brentford have consistently outperformed expectations in the Premier League for the last two seasons and both find themselves comfortably in the mid-table with a chance to push into the European places with a good stretch during the ongoing festive fixture period.
The Seagulls have just one win in the league since October began and the injuries and defensive inconsistency makes them a vulnerable favorite.
Let's get into my Brighton vs Brentford prediction.
Brighton
Teams have adjusted in their approaches to facing Brighton this season. The Seagulls were elite last season at baiting teams into pressing them, then quickly moving the ball forward and creating a ton of big scoring chances in transition moments against them with quick progressive passes and carries. When you had a super athletic midfield with Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo, those two could cover a ton of space in defensive transition and also progress the ball forward in possession. Wide forward Kaoru Mitoma was an elite receiving outlet and he was the primary engine of ball carrying and progression and Brighton were the most profitable team in the Premier League last season.
Roberto De Zerbi's side has remained quite open at the back defensively, and now their possession structures are considerably more slow and intricate with the ball. Only Manchester City averages more passes per attacking sequence than Brighton and only Burnley, Arsenal and City have a slower direct attacking speed.
Teams are keeping more players behind the ball and limiting Brighton's attacking output as a result. Brighton are second in the PL in build-up completion rate and Brentford will do nothing to stop Brighton from having the ball in non-dangerous areas. The Seagulls finished last season with the second-most expected goals and had the most if you only count the league minutes coached by De Zerbi.
Brighton are down to eighth in xG per 90 and between fifth and eighth in every attacking metric. The open system and league average defense works if you can truly outscore everyone, but Brighton are now vulnerable because the attack hasn't been good enough to do that.
Brentford
Brentford have been consistently adaptable throughout Frank's tenure with the Bees and this new iteration of Brentford in this season is different from the last two seasons, but still extremely effective. Brentford's defense hasn't been nearly as good this year at preventing big scoring chances, which was a staple of their defense under Frank in the last two seasons. The Bees are 16th in big scoring chances conceded and are getting broken down more than usual.
In the past, Brentford would concede a ton of shots from long range. They had a stark difference in shot quantity differential to the negative. The Bees have lessened that gap considerably this season. Teams are tilting the field on them less, Brentford are pressing more and adding another player into the regular attack.
Brentford are playing less 3-5-2 this year and more 4-3-3 and attacking with three players going forward instead of just two. Part of this is an adjustment to the suspension of Ivan Toney, but the Bees' attack has actually gotten better since his suspension. The Bees rank fourth in shots per 90 and fourth in non-penalty xG per 90.
They've been consistently better at beating up on inferior teams, as shown by their beatdown of Luton Town last weekend. The attack in the past would be heavily reliant on making the most out of very few shots. Now, the Bees are producing like a more normal and standard above average attack. It's a more sustainable way of playing.
Attacking output:
2022-23 Brentford
Shots for: 18th
xG per shot: 1st
Big Chances: 6th
Overall NPxG per 90: 8th
2023-24 Brentford (rank)
Shots for: 4th
xG per shot: 4th
Big Chances: 12th
Overall NPxG per 90: 4th
Brighton vs Brentford
Prediction
Brentford have kept some core principles — their reliance on crossing and set pieces especially. Brighton conceded twice on set pieces to Chelsea last weekend and have struggled defending them at times this year.
These two teams met at Brighton in the spring when the Seagulls were at their market peak and Brighton were -145 on the three-way moneyline close. Even though the Seagulls created a ton of chances, they were consistently vulnerable on the counter and conceded almost 2 xG. I expect Brentford to cause a ton of issues once again in transition and be right in the mix to win this match on Wednesday.
I'd bet Brentford to get a win or draw at -120 or better and sprinkle the ML at +250 or better.
Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-110) and Brentford ML (+280)
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