Brighton vs Sheffield United Prediction | Sunday Premier League Picks

Brighton vs Sheffield United Prediction | Sunday Premier League Picks article feature image

BSR Agency/Getty. Pictured: Simon Adingra.

Brighton vs Sheffield United Odds

Sunday, Nov. 12
9 a.m. ET
Brighton Odds-350
Sheffield United Odds+900
Over / Under
 +110 / -138
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brighton will be looking for their first league win since late September when they face a Sheffield United side that remains bottom of the table despite enjoying their first win of the entire season last weekend.

The Seagulls are getting used to life in Europe and have acquitted themselves well all things considered, taking seven points from their first four UEFA Europa League games. But that appears to have taken a toll on the league front — as it often does — with Brighton only taking three points from their last five fixtures.

The Blades finally earned a win at home last weekend, through a late penalty decider to triumph 2-1 over Wolves. But they've lost all five on their league travels so far while conceding a total of 14 goals in the process.

It's Sheffield United who have had the better of this all-time series, taking two wins and two draws from four Premier League meetings, including a 1-0 victory at Bramall Lane in their last clash in April of 2021.

Here is my Brighton vs Sheffield United prediction.

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Brighton certainly have the profile of a team beginning to show wear under the strain of new continental demands, and the underlying numbers bear that out.

In the Seagulls' first six league games this season, they scored 18 times and averaged 2.1 xG generated per 90 minutes. In their last five, they found the net only six times and generated 1.3 xG per 90.

Of course, the league schedule isn't symmetrical. So it has to be noted that included in those five opponents were Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa.

But it was the most conservative-minded opponent — Everton — that saw Brighton generate the fewest chances, compiling only 0.5 xG and being fortunate to rescue a 1-1 draw on Ashley Young's own goal.

Manager Roberto De Zerbi's hefty injury woes only worsened on Thursday night in a 2-0 win at Ajax, with James Milner, Lewis Dunk and Pervis Estupinan all exiting before the final whistle.

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Sheffield United

Sheffield United are the rare Premier League team that scores only nine goals through their first 11 games and are actually slightly out-performing their xG totals.

The Blades have generated only 8.4 xG and have scored two of their nine tallies from the penalty spot, including last weekend's winner. They have yet to score multiple goals away from home in the league, and on the two times they've done so at home, it has taken the intervention of the penalty spot or an opposing player.

They've only scored three times on the road, and they have not played a single away match where the total xG value created combined between the teams has surpassed 3.0.

Manager Paul Heckingbottom has his own injury issues, with Rhian Brewster and Gustavo Hamer both exiting prematurely against Wolves.

Hamer's creativity would be a critical loss if he can't recover in time for Sunday given how little of it the Blades have elsewhere in the squad.

Brighton vs Sheffield United


Even when fully fit, Brighton have shown some difficulty in trying to break down teams that play a deeper block. And at this moment, De Zerbi's squad is far from fully fit.

So, I think you have to take advantage of inflated odds on the total here at -130 and an implied 56.5% probability, with that price based on what the Seagulls did earlier this season when they were close to full strength.

I can understand some uneasiness about it, given Brighton's past explosiveness and United's occasional self destructions. But this is a bet based on the moment in time. At this moment, Brighton haven't played a game where the total exceeds three for more than a month, and they haven't scored more than two themselves since September.

The only logical way the total goes above 3.5 here is if the Seagulls supply at least three of the goals.

Pick: Under 3.5 (-130 via Caesars)

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