Bayer Leverkusen vs. Werder Bremen Betting Odds and Pick: How to Bet Monday’s Bundesliga Match
David Inderlied/dpa (Photo by David Inderlied/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Bellarabi
- Bayer Leverkusen is a -140 favorite over Werder Bremen in the updated odds for Monday's Bundesliga match on FS2 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Werder Bremen has struggled this season in the Bundesliga, will they continue to falter against Leverkusen?
- Anthony Dabbundo previews the final game of Matchweek 26:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen at Werder Bremen Odds
- Bayer Leverkusen odds: -135
- Werder Bremen odds: +340
- Draw: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-160/+130)
- Time: Monday, 2:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
Werder Bremen enters its “Monday Night Football” clash against Bayer Leverkusen in a perilous position as the league resumes play. Werder currently sits 17th (of 18) in the Bundesliga, facing potential relegation to the second division if it doesn’t improve in the final stretch of the season.
The River Islanders have conceded 55 goals in 24 matches, the most of any team, but its underlying expected goals numbers aren’t nearly as bad as the 55 goals would suggest. With just 36.9 xGA this year, no team in the Bundesliga has been more unfortunate defensively.
While I’d typically look to play on teams that have underperformed its xG by that much defensively, I have major concerns about the fitness issues and recent form. Werder has won just four games all season, and its attack has generated the third-worst xGF in the league for a reason.
|Expected Goals For||47.4||26.38|
|Expected Goals Against||35.48||42.37|
Attacking midfielder Davy Klassen is suspended for the match due to card accumulation, and he’s one of the few attacking options behind lead striker Milot Rashica.
Traditionally, fading a road team playing against a desperate side fighting off relegation in the latter half of the season is a bet that wins more than it loses. But given the circumstances, I’m much less worried about a letdown spot for Leverkusen, given that it’s their first game since the layoff.
The rest of the league’s top teams had no problems regaining their form as Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach rolled to easy wins. RB Leipzig dropped points but was done in by poor finishing.
While Werder was falling down the table , Leverkusen were the hottest team in the league prior to the layoff. Die Werkself have won 12 of their last 14 matches in all competitions, placing themselves in the heart of the top four race for Champions League spots. They are fifth in xGF and xGA and are one of the league’s most balanced sides.
While striker Kevin Volland’s status is in doubt, Leverkusen’s attack is well spread out. Seven players have at least three goals, including Kai Havertz and Luca Alario with six each behind Volland’s nine. If Volland doesn’t play, Leverkusen’s possession-based attack should be able to camp out inside the Werder half as Die Werkself ranks second only to Bayern in possession percentage.
With the extended layoff and shortened training period before games, the talent and quality of the better sides has undone the lack of cohesion from the lower table teams, home or away.
Even though I’ll be looking to bet on Werder down the final stretch of the season, this is not the spot for them. This showdown would have been one of its most anticipated home games, but instead it’ll be without the home crowd. I’m expecting Leverkusen to have no problems keeping its good form going after the two-month layoff and win the game. The market for this match has ping-ponged a bit. On Sunday, the line moved towards Leverkusen, but there has been some buyback on Werder Bremen on Monday morning, moving the line back down to -135.
If you’re looking to play a total, instead of playing the Under 2.5 at +122, Werder’s goal scoring issues and Leverkusen’s sturdy defense make “No” on Both Teams To Score at +126 a better value bet.
The Bet: Leverkusen -150 or better